One game tonight in the NBA:
Betting is 67% on the home favorite with the line moving from -7.5 to -5.5. Clearly a reverse line move. However a 2 pt move over key numbers. Any hint of an advantage based upon the reverse line move is negated by the +7.5 to +5.5. However if you look at Golden State your siding with 67% of the bettors. Usually not a winning long term proposition. So as I see it there are arguments against both sides!!! Models are neutral as are variables. I am passing on the game.
Sunday we had a one unit play on the Angels +160 and they lost 3-8. We also had a setup on the Yankees -128 which was a loss 1-4.
Late Saturday night I also sent out three games I felt had the potential for big moves. Those have been pretty accurate since I started putting them out.
St Louis +105
With the closing line on the above 3 games:
St Louis -116
You could of played a middle on all three of those games as the line move was that great. If your doing some handicapping on your own its pretty valuable to have some insight on the games that have good chances for big moves. That is what I intend to do daily now through the end of the season.
Last night and this morning there were no big move games but I did send out two 1/2 unit plays for this evening in baseball.
Let me also mention if this big move game prediction in sports betting is not just a flash in the pan I will be working out for next season a betting method that takes advantage of these games. Its way too early to jump to any conclusions but so far its been uncanny:)
Just so you know the type of person your dealing with here. I spent 2 hours this morning handicapping the first week of the NFL! I could not resist.
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Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks