Threat of Shutdown vs Super Strong seasonality. Which will win out over the next 2 weeks? My thoughts

We have had an interesting Stock Market the last week or two. You either have a gap down and lower or a gap up and it does not hold.
The news is pounding this market not because it is all negative, but because of the knee-jerk reaction, in part caused by program trading.
The only way you can trade markets like this is to trade smaller and have larger stops. Otherwise, you do not have a chance.
You will either be whipsawed every day or you will take huge loses.
Just trade 1/2 size with double the usual stop and you should do much better.
It seems thing does not change when it comes to the news. We still have tariffs. But now we have something we have not seen for a while. A government shutdown looms. And this time, I think investors should pay attention to it.
The president is committed at this point to getting 5 million for the wall. Before he was forced to compromise to get the military spending he felt was needed. But now, he is free to concentrate on the funding for the wall.
Combine that with 2020 approaching and I doubt he is going to leave the wall as an unfilled promise.
So that means, if you have been taking the very profitable buy the day before the shutdown deadline trade, it might not work this time around.
I know it is hard to predict something that has work 100% in the past as not working this time, but, just keep that in mind:)
Which causes us a problem. As we are now in the most profitable days historically for the stock market. The next 2.5 weeks has been almost the nuts in trading the long side.
It will be interesting what happens this time around. Shutdown fears vs a very strong historical pattern.
I have taken my advice for a change and have cut my trading size down while increasing my stop loss size. It has worked out fine for me, as I have been holding my own in this market. Not making much money but not getting crunched either.
Looking over the indexes this morning most are up over 1% premarket. Financials are leading the way, with most everything else in the green except TLT and the U.S. dollar.
That is a very strong premarket configuration. I would not be playing a gap fill today:)

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Skype: Ricca

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Contact Us

We're not around right now. But you can send us an email and we'll get back to you, asap.

Not readable? Change text. captcha txt
Rickj's Handicapping Picks
Sign up now for our  newsletter. Includes handicapping tips

MLB Season is free for 2024!!

RickJ's Handicapping Picks  The latest in positive EV handicapping Techniques Overnight Plays in MLB are sent out around 3 to 4 PM PST the day before Come join us for a fun and profitable Pro Sports season!!!  
Sign up now for the service. Its free until NCAA FB starts. 

Positive EV Handicapping

Do you know the important clues that help determine which side has +EV?
  • Learn about Reverse Line Moves and how they apply to each sport
  • Learn about being a contrarian and using public % numbers to get an edge
  • Learn about the seasons within a season that all sports have
  • Learn key numbers in all sports

Sign up to get updates that will help you with your sports handicapping!