# Thurs

Nothing again today. Things should pick up a little when mlb starts but still
will be slow. We are hitting the slow time for me for handicapping.

As always I will update this site and twitter if anything develops.

Earning Expectations

Most of the new players that come out to vegas to make a living
have the expectation of earning a big bet per hour. They have read
in many popular books that a good player has this earn rate.

Let me be the first to tell you that for 99% of the players out
there the big bet per hour win rate is not in reach.

Lets do the math. In the game I play in which is essentially 40-80
Omaha 8 or better. A big bet an hour and playing 50 hours a
week your earn per week would be 4,000 or 208,000 a year. But lets
say your fortunate enough to find a 100-200 Omaha 8 game (which is
available daily when the world series is here) A 50 hour week would
bring you 10,000 a week or 520,000 a year.

Easy as can be! And better yet if you want to earn more just put in another
10 hours a week for an additional 800 a week in the 40-80 game.

The big bet an hour your read about in poker books is a myth! First of all
the only one making over a big bet an hour is the casino. In the game I play in
they take 12.00 an hour, its a 9 handed game..so the drop is 108 an hour.

The game goes every day minimum of 10 hours a day, often times the game goes
around the clock and sometimes they get two games going. What this
amounts to is the casino taking anywhere from 300,000 to 400,000 out
of the game each and every year.

This money comes directly out of the players pockets! Even if you were the best
player in the game it would be next to impossible to grind out a big bet
an hour with the house taking that kind of money out of the game.

Combine that with the fact that for many players sitting in the game if they
were to have a 30,000 downswing they would be out of action. Thats a little more
then what they would pay in rake over the year.

So what are your expections? If your a top top player and the game is soft a small bet an hour is obtainable sometimes a little more. But then how often is the game soft!

Now of course the above is my opinion based upon my observations over the years. You can always ask a player who plays regularly and their answer of course is going to be at least a big bet an hour:) After all who wants to admit they are making less then the books say!

A case in point….. a few days ago I was talking to a player that has been around for years and who I respect both as a player and a person. He doesn’t play in the Omaha 8 game but mostly plays higher limits and no limit regularly. He was telling me a player that played in the game regularly told him he made \$140,000 a year in the game. It was so far away from his thinking about the game he asked my opinion. And he was right….from my observation of playing with this person I would estimate he was about \$160,000 off. In other words my observations are the persons earn is closer to -20,000 a year. And of course the person I was talking with wasn’t surprised.

Most poker players are like sports bettors. Everyone is a winner and by a large margin. The disparity of what you hear and reality is huge. But then that’s human nature at work.

I often thought it would be interesting if it could be done to have everyones graph of their net winnings and loses posted everyday so you could see the skill caliber of the persons you are playing with. The only problem with that aside from it would be impossible to obtain is that then you would have only a few players showing up to play….the rest would be too embarrassed! But if they did show up at least it would be a very quiet game:)

Well now you know my thoughts on this big bet an hour idea and your earnings expectations.

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

• Andrew

Rick,

Why don't you play online or do you?

• John K

Online's rigged. jk. Great blog Rick and thanks for all your picks. Also I am friends w/ some of the Bellagio players you play w/ and am a professional poker player as well. I happen to be one of the most successful online pros and if you or any of your readers want to follow an online pro living in Vegas, feel free to visit my blog at http://www.nicolakpoker.blogspot.com. Again thanks for the picks Rick!

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