Wedn Memphis got blown out in the 2nd half for a loss.
Feb is over now and it was our first losing month. A few other things to note:
1. the last 3 months has only resulted in +2.06 units on 182 plays.
2. The nba sides are only just a bit over breakeven for the entire season and that is with a -105 line.
So for the rest of the season I am dropping my nba sides bets down to the very minimum I bet. But keeping the totals the same.
I am not very confident that I have a winning method on nba sides except for the 1st 6 weeks of the season. We will see what the rest of the season brings…but I am not going to lose much money on nba sides.
Today no plays.
Record to date:
mlb(05-06 season,started end of season)
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09
ncaafb (06-07 completed)
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83
sides 29-30 +4.31
Side 68-58-1 +7.17
sides(2ndHalf) 0-6-1 -6.30
o/u 27-18 +8.33
Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81% Return
Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0% Return
Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11% Return
Jan: 57 bets + 6.92 units +12.14% Return
Feb: 31 bets -6.75 units -21.77% Return
Total 419 Bets + 39.00 units +9.31% Return
You’ve mentioned before that it would take too much extra work to include NCAAB. Have you thought about dropping the NBA in order to make room for NCAAB picks? In my experience, NCAAB games seem easier to hit at a larger clip. I think that your picks in the NBA are solid, it’s been a rough year for sharps as favorites (often big road favorites like Dallas and Phoenix) have been covering a lot. I think your system faired better at the beginning of the season because many of the dogs we were betting still considered themselves “in the hunt”. The season is long and it’s easy for some of the bottom teams to lose motivation.
Do you have reasons to believe, other than your record, that your edge on sides is negligible? I haven’t looked at it myself, but it *seems* like you are beating the line more often than the line is going against you, a stronger indicator of skill. 120 games still isn’t a great sample. You have had a number of close losses recently, which are obviously beholden to a lot of luck. Are you winning in the blowout games that you are betting on? That could also indicate that you are doing worse than you should.
Hey Rick I know you’re aware of this but I wouldn’t say you don’t have a winning method simply due to having just a small profit after 126 bets on NBA sides.
I have no idea what your expectation is going on, but the record isn’t all that unlikely really.
Thanks for the comments. I am typically very conservative when it comes to betting. So am just being cautious. I have nothing to indicate my concern expect for the record to date results.
As to ncaa baskets….the work load would be 20 times what it takes in the nba….perhaps one day I will find the time… but not while I am playing poker 50 hours a week:)