thurs plays

Nothing early today.

Some comments on the nba finals. It looks like the line makers are finally giving Boston some credit. The game 1 line was boston -2.5. It really should of been around -4. Boston wins the game by 10 and what do they do. The lakers are a 1.5 pt favorite at boston in game 2. Boston beats them again and them the lakers are 9.5 at la!!!. Boston covers that easily and finally the line moves down to the lakers -7.5.

I still think this is high. But the public is 60-40 on the lakers so I need a bit more of a disparity before I will be betting Boston.

The split between early and late plays is about 50-50 and I would expect that to continue through the rest of the season. These late plays are FREE. Just send me your email address and I will add you to the group receiving late plays.

Poker Comments:

Hold em (limit)

Behind Omaha 8 I have the most hours playing limit holdem.

While There are few players that play omaha 8 very well and many players that play poorly Holdem is the opposite. So many books have been written about all aspects of the game that the young players playing the game now are quite good.

The best holdem games are when a lot of people are seeing the flop but with little raising. The toughest are the games where each hand is raised and 3 bet with mostly headup and 3 way play.

Another thing I look for is players that are in their 40s on up. Although I don’t like to pigeon hole players all things being equal these are the players easiest to play against. The younger players in there 20s tend to be tough aggressive players and at my age who needs or wants the challenge:)

The only weakness I have found in some of the younger players is that they can be overly aggressive and overly confident which means you will earn much more then you should on a good hand. Against this type of player I dont try to out play them..but just a boring straightforward game.

The first thing I did before my game improved was to get a solid fundamental structure to my game. The book that helped me the most was “Middle limit Holdem” By Robert Ciaffone. Not only did it provide a solid structure to my game it was a starting point for analyzing how other players played.

Many players play “by the book” so you can pretty much get an idea what range of hands they have. But there are many players that also play unorthodox…these players require much more thought.

Before you sit down to play a long holdem session you really have to get mentally prepared. There will be hours that go by when you dont get a playable hand. There will be bad beats. Be prepared.

With your only being able to see two cards it makes it even more important knowing how others play. So if your not mentally prepared you really should pass on playing holdem for the day.

None today

On the upper right hand corner of my blog I have a link to all previous posts of poker comments

Late Plays.

we had 1 late play on wedn in the wnba and it lost. Detroit +5

Late Play Record:

MLB 08 season
Sides: 10-17 -5.02
Total: 5-4 +0.95

Wnba 08
Sides 4-1 +2.95

Arena football
Sides 0-1 -1.05
Total0-1-1 0.00
NHL
Sides 6-6 +1.15
Total 0-1-2 -1.00
NBA
Sides 25-16 +8.20
total 10-12-1 – 1.65
NFL
Sides: 1-0 +1.00
Total: 0-1 -1.05
NCAA fb
sides:
totals: 7-5-1 + 1.75
mlb
sides: 8-23 -11.19
Total: 7-12 – 5.65

Wnba 07
Sides: 1-1 0.00
Total: 0-2 -2.15

Good luck

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Record to date:

MLB (08 season)
Sides: 13-9 +7.38
Total: 1-1-1 -0.10

MLB(07 Season)
Sides: 71-93 +3.79
O/U: 24-21-1 + 2.40

mlb(06 season,started end of season)
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09

NFL (07-08)completed
Sides 18-10 +7.50
Total 0-1 -1.05

nfl(06-07 completed)
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83

Ncaafb(07-08)
Sides: 19-10-1 +8.50
Totals: 33-15-2 +17.15

ncaafb (06-07 completed)
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63

NBA 07-08
Sides 11-14 -3.60
Total 6-8 -2.35

Nba 06-07 completed
Side 78-77 -2.75
o/u 31-25 +4.98

NHL (07 Season)
Sides: 4-12 -6.75
totals:

nhl06-07 completed
sides 35-36 +6.66
total 4-5 -1.10

Arena Football
Sides:
Total: 1-0 +1.00

WNBA
Sides: 5-1 +3.95
Total: 0-1 -1.05

Oct06: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81%
Nov06: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0%
Dec06: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11%
Jan07: 57 bets + 6.92 units +12.14%
Feb07: 31 bets -6.75 units -21.77%
Mar07: 40 bets -9.75 units -24.37%
April07: 34 bets +3.42 units +10.06%
May07: 49 bets -3.64 units -7.43%
JUne07: 46 bets +14.66units +31.87%
July07: 45 bets -7.26 units -16.13%
Aug07: 37 bets +2.63 units +7.10%
Sep07t 65 bets +11.29 units +17.37%
Oct07: 28 bet +16.10 +57.50%
Nov07: 40 bet +2.00 units +5.39%
Dec07: 18 bets 0.05 units +2.78%
Jan08: 12 bets -3.60
Feb 08 5 bet +0.80
Mar 08 17 bets -5.10
April 08 12 bets +5.91
May 08 9 bets +2.33
June 08 4 bet 1-2-1 -0.95
Year2 147 bet +19.33+13.40%
Year1 734 Bets + 50.70units +6.91%
Total: 881 bets +68.03 +7.68%

Showing 0 comments
  • Geoff
    Reply

    Good stuff, Rick! I took the C’s for the series at +170 since they would be favored for every home game. Looks like I was wrong as you said the Lakers were fav for game 2!

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