12:30 Update

One NFL game tonight and two college football games.

In the NHL game 74% of the public is on Carolina with the line opening at -6.5 on both Pinnacle and Cris and now -6.5-115 and -7 even on Pinnacle and Cris.

My Models say that Carolina is slightly overvalued….and I have a variable that points to Tampa tonight. However none of this wants me to play Tampa Bay or consider them even as a lean. Nothing points to them enough to consider that. So tonight a clear cut pass for me. Now if the public number would get to 20% on Tampa I might reconsider…but not much chance of that happening.

In College football tonight the public is on Mississippi st 74% and Marshall 66%.

Mississippi st opening at -9.5 and is now -11.5-108 on Pinnacle and -12 on Cris. I do not have anything that points to either direction on the game so a clear cut pass for me.

Marshall opened at 9.5 and is 9.5 on both Pinnacle and Cris although you have to lay -115 on Pinnacle.

Most of what I look at points to Middle TN St tonight.

Thursday Ncaa Football Tracking setup ( I do not bet these)

Middle Tn St +9.5

Wednesday we lost our 1 unit play on St Louis in the first game of the World Series.

Today another play with St Louis

Thursday MLB Play
1 Unit
953 STL-M Wacha +110
954 -J Lackey

NHL and Comments on tonights football games a bit later

twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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  • Matt


    Love the site been following for a long time. For a novice gambler can you give me an idea of what a reverse line move means to determining the side you want to be on? Seems to me the contrarian gains value from line movement swaying with the public, but you seem to find reverse line moves significant variables to your models. Just wondering if you would touch on that. Keep up the great work.

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