Wednesday we won our 1 unit play on St Louis +110 4-2. Also our tracking setup in college football on Middle Tn St +9.5 was an easy cover as they had the number covered the entire game and went on to win the game by 2 bringing our tracking setups on college football to
Today not much to choose from. Most likely nothing in the NHL. In game 3 of the World series I am hoping to see St Louis plus odds widely available.
On College football game tonight.
The public is on the Road Dog 57%. The line opened at Pinnacle -7.5 +102 and is now -7 -110. On Cris -7.5-105 now -6.5-116. My models show the game to be fairly valued…variables a slight lean towards boise. However when I see the public favoring the dog its like a red flag for me and I rule out the dog. 57% is not enough for me to consider the favorite however and the game is a clear pass for me tonight.
Love the site been following for a long time. For a novice gambler can you give me an idea of what a reverse line move means to determining the side you want to be on? Seems to me the contrarian gains value from line movement swaying with the public, but you seem to find reverse line moves significant variables to your models. Just wondering if you would touch on that. Keep up the great work.”
Yes you are correct….most of the time the books move the lines with the public betting. So what happens is first you get a built in edge as the books usually know what side the public is going to be on and fudge a bit trying to get a little extra vig on the game. Then you combine that with the move after the public piles on and you can find games with value.
But its also not that simple as it depends on the sport, whether the move a result of a few of the top handicapping services and other factors.
Now reverse line moves are a bit different. You have the public strong on one side of the game but the line moves in the opposite direction. This for me is the best setup to incorporate into your handicapping as it reflects the books decision for what ever reason to move the line opposite the way the action is coming into the game. One could speculate the reason for reverse line moves but for whatever reason it happens the books do not move line randomly…..you can count on that.
Reverse line moves alone will not get you past the 2.5% or 5% vig you have to overcome to be profitable. However if you combine it with other successful handicapping techniques you will be a step ahead of most handicappers.