Wednesday we lost our 1 unit play on St Louis +108. And now baseball is over….a tough season for me.
Five football games tonight.
In the NFL tonight 82% of the public is on Cinci. The line opened at -1-113 and is now -3+102 and at Cris -1.5 to -3.
One of the strongest plays in the NFL is taking dogs where the public is less then 20% on them. Miami qualifies for this right now. However my models show cinci to be undervalued and I am staying away from the game. The Under 20% is actually a bit stronger on road dogs. So tonight is a pass for me.
In College Football 4 games.
The public numbers are
Arizona St 58%
Whenever you get a game in the high 80s you look for a reason to take the other side. However everything except that number points to Houston tonight for me. So I am passing on the game. If the public number was less then 70 I might even consider it as a lean or tracking setup.
With 63% of the public on Rice the are on the dog. Usually the public is on the favorite. My models also show N texas to be undervalued…..
Thurs Ncaa Football Lean
N Texas -2.5
Arizona St -10.5
Troy not much there on either side…my models show a slight edge to monroe…but only very slight…a pass for me
In the Arizona st game everything I look at points to Arizona st tonight. Not enough for a play or tracking setup….but certainly a lean.
Nothing tonight in the nba or nhl.
Good Luck Today