One game tonight in the nfl. Let me start out by saying tenn +2.5 is one of my picks in the hilton contest. 81% of the public is on Indy and the line has moved from-1 to -3 at most books. It’s the 2nd highest public number behind San Diego this weekend.

My models show Indy to be quite a bit overvalued at 3. Also all of the variables I look at point to tenn.

I bet tenn at +3 this morning but that number was not widely available then . It is now so I am putting the game out as a play.

Thursday nfl play
1 unit
Tenn +3 -115

Wednesday we won our 1/2 unit play on Wyoming in an easy win. Also our lean in the NBA with the clippers -4.5 covered.

Today a bit of everything. Too early for NBA and NHL. College baskets nothing shows up this morning.

3 Football games tonight. I will update with some comments on tonights NFL Game later in the afternoon.

Two college football games:

80% of the public is on Clemson tonight. The line opened at -10 and is now -10.5 at both Pinnacle and Cris. Bovada had the game at -11 -115. Just looking at this I would be looking for a reason to wager on Georgia tech. Also My models show Clemson to be quite a bit over valued. But There are 3 variables that point to Clemson tonight that are some of the strongest I consider. So despite the public and my models I am going to pass on the game.

Marshall has 86% of the public on them with the line opening at 14.5 at both Pinnacle and Cris and now the line is 13 and 12.5 respectively. Bovada is -13 -115. So we have a reverse line move on both Pinnacle and Cris…we have Bovada on the favorite and my models show Marshall to be overvalued but not as over valued as clemson. But…..again some of my strongest Variables point to Marshall tonight. So again I am passing on this game.

A Comment :

“Rick on your ncaa plays, given that unlike fb all half points are key would you pass the plays that are a half point from what you released them at? Today’s game I could only get 10 and was decideing whether to pass, and now it’s 9.5 so now I am definitely passing. What are your thoughts on this. Thanks!”

Whenever your uncomfortable with the move just pass on the game. There will be plenty of games to wager on. Saying that…the first 4 weeks of college hoops if you were ever going to not take into consideration the line move this would be the time. Once conference play starts the half point rule is a pretty good one.

One other thing I would like to discuss is the 1st half wagering. Logically to me it seems that might be the way to go in college hoops. But in the NBA I do not think the first half wagering will be as strong. These of course are not based upon any backtesting but only my observations of handicapping over the years.

I will update a bit later

Good Luck Today

Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

  • Ben Webster

    As a huge fan of NBA derivatives betting, I’d say there’s nothing profitable about blanket taking H1 on any pick. You may find short-term trends like how home dogs across the board have been covering at a good clip this season, but over time there’s no broad advantage. This is similar to why trends like “road teams off a road loss are currently 0-13 ATS” (hypothetical). That would be crazy to take all upcoming home trams facing an opponent off a road loss going forward.

    This isn’t to say trends/past performance can’t be useful, but in my opinion, any broad single-indicator picks are bad.

    Maybe if you look back at all your picks and see what your W/L on tailing H1s would’ve made a bunch of money, but I think if you really want to bet H1s you need to think about them mostly as independent situations and apply your own analysis to be most profitable. But just tailing your picks with H1s seems similar to building a system that fails miserably, fading it, and expecting to win.

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