4:00 Update
Two games tonight in College football
Texas has 63% of the betting on them. Pinnacle -4 to -5.5 Cris -4.5 to -5.5 Bovada -5.5
My models show texas to be slightly undervalued. Variables slightly favor Tech. A pass for me.
67% on Mississippi. Pinnacle -3 to -3.5-106 Cris -3 to -3.5 Bovada -4
My models show Mississippi to be slight over valued. Variables point strongly to Miss St. The public numbers do not support a play.
Thursday NCAA FB Tracking setup ( I do not bet these)
Miss St +3.5
3:15 Update
Thursday NCAA BB Lean ( I do not bet these)
806 Siena +18
1st Half +11
12:00 Update
Thursday NCAA BB Lean ( I do not bet these)
820 Call St Full +10.5
1st Half +6
Wednesday was a good day. Our 1 unit play on Drexel covered easily. Our 1/2 unit play in the NHL on Ottawa +123 won 6-4. Our NCAA Hoop leans split 1-1. The first half wagers went the same way as the game lines.
Today lets start with the NFL:
Public Numbers:
Detroit 68%
Pinnacle -6 to -6.5 Even
Cris -4 to -6
Bovada -7-105
My Models show detroit to be quit a bit overvalued. Of course Bovada confirms the public sentiment moving the line all the way to -7. There is a very high % variable that points to Detroit today. Also its the only variable on the game. This game is a pass for me. Remember the models are usually the least prognostic of what I look at.
Dallas 64%
Pinnacle -9.5 +102 to -8.5
Cris -9.5 to -8.5
Bovada -9-105
My models show Dallas to be slightly undervalued. My variables are split on the game leaning slightly to Dallas. But we have a reverse line move pointing to Oakland. So again nothing very clear cut and a pass today.
PITT 52%
Pinnacle -1-125 to -2.5-115
Cris -2.5 to -2.5-115
Bovada -3+105
My models show the game to be fairly valued. Variables are split on both sides. With only 48% of the public on Baltimore the line has moved in Baltimores favor quite a bit. I would say Baltimore ever so slightly…but not even enough for me to call it a lean.
I am using none of these game in the Hilton contest.
I will be posting NCAA Baskets about 15 min before game times if there are plays. Also two NCAA FB games later today. I will comment on them a bit later.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
