4:00 Update

Two games tonight in College football

Texas has 63% of the betting on them. Pinnacle -4 to -5.5 Cris -4.5 to -5.5 Bovada -5.5
My models show texas to be slightly undervalued. Variables slightly favor Tech. A pass for me.

67% on Mississippi. Pinnacle -3 to -3.5-106 Cris -3 to -3.5 Bovada -4

My models show Mississippi to be slight over valued. Variables point strongly to Miss St. The public numbers do not support a play.

Thursday NCAA FB Tracking setup ( I do not bet these)

Miss St +3.5

3:15 Update

Thursday NCAA BB Lean ( I do not bet these)

806 Siena +18

1st Half +11

12:00 Update

Thursday NCAA BB Lean ( I do not bet these)

820 Call St Full +10.5

1st Half +6

Wednesday was a good day. Our 1 unit play on Drexel covered easily. Our 1/2 unit play in the NHL on Ottawa +123 won 6-4. Our NCAA Hoop leans split 1-1. The first half wagers went the same way as the game lines.

Today lets start with the NFL:

Public Numbers:
Detroit 68%
Pinnacle -6 to -6.5 Even
Cris -4 to -6
Bovada -7-105

My Models show detroit to be quit a bit overvalued. Of course Bovada confirms the public sentiment moving the line all the way to -7. There is a very high % variable that points to Detroit today. Also its the only variable on the game. This game is a pass for me. Remember the models are usually the least prognostic of what I look at.

Dallas 64%
Pinnacle -9.5 +102 to -8.5
Cris -9.5 to -8.5
Bovada -9-105

My models show Dallas to be slightly undervalued. My variables are split on the game leaning slightly to Dallas. But we have a reverse line move pointing to Oakland. So again nothing very clear cut and a pass today.

PITT 52%
Pinnacle -1-125 to -2.5-115
Cris -2.5 to -2.5-115
Bovada -3+105

My models show the game to be fairly valued. Variables are split on both sides. With only 48% of the public on Baltimore the line has moved in Baltimores favor quite a bit. I would say Baltimore ever so slightly…but not even enough for me to call it a lean.

I am using none of these game in the Hilton contest.

I will be posting NCAA Baskets about 15 min before game times if there are plays. Also two NCAA FB games later today. I will comment on them a bit later.

Good Luck Today

Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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