4:40 Update
Slight Edge
MLB
MInn +189
Houston has only 18% of the betting on them with a reverse line move. However thats about it. I need something else also to pull the trigger on them. But it would be Houston or pass for me. I am passing
3:40 Update
Thursday MLB Play
1/2 U
MIami +103
Wednesday we had 4 1/2 unit plays and split 2-2 for a small gain. Of course its always great to start out 0-2 in the early game:)
Three early games and so far there is nothing that stands out to me in these games. I am most likely passing on all three games. Colorado so far in the early games is the least public number at 25%. But no reverse line move. If the number is <25 it would then fall into a colorado or pass for me. San Diego is next at at 29%. Variables slightly favor San Diego..Models are neutral. If we had a reverse line move I would consider a half point play on san diego...but its quite a bit away from that. Finally the white sox is 35%. Nothing there at all I can see. I will update a bit later this afternoon. I have been watching the stock market go straight down this morning giving us a 1.55% loss today. Looks like this trade will be a few more days at least. A few comments: "Rick - sorry if I missed this previous explanation, but noticed you are now taking run-line positions. Can you explain what led to this and how +EV can be derived from those types of wagers? Thanks!" These plays are a new subset I have uncovered. Not many of these show up but backtesting shows them to be quite profitable. I have also put in a few other requirements as filters. If your uncomfortable taking these then just pass on these plays. They certainly do not have the history of other setups. "Hello, first of all, I really like your blog on 2+2. I want to ask you if you offer coaching hours. From your picks you often say that the edges are really thin in sports betting. Is that my perception or is it really that close/thin. Im consderering to switch to sports betting from poker. I read the book "Changing the Game" from wall street shark Will Hall. Have you any thoughts about this book? I really enjoyed it and I really like his mathimatical system "Get In and Win" which includes value rating. But my main questions would be if you offer some coaching and if you can tell me if the edges in sports betting are mostly really that thin and close or if you just hide the profitable bets from the public which is absolulety reasonable. Regards" As far as coaching I do not have the time to do that. This is primarily a hobby for me and at this point I am still not looking to turn this into any type of financial endeavor....even though I am spending quite a bit of time in the morning on this. I have not read changing the game..but I will take a look at it. As far as other bets I do from time to time take other wagers but not very often. I do take everything I post however. And I pretty much adher to 3% of what I have set aside for sports betting for each wager. Good luck today RickJ Rickjshandicappingpicks.com Twitter: rickjsportplays Twitter: rickjswingtrade
