3:00 Update

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Wednesday our MLB plays went 1-3 and our early play this morning lost. If I had any sense I would revamp MLB and wait for next season. But I am going to finish off the season and regroup during the off season for baseball. Its been a miserable season. No way around it.

Thursday MLB Plays
Phil +139
Arizona +116

Late MLB Weightings:
957 SD – A Cashner 1
958 WAS – J Ross
955 NYM – J Niese
956 PHI – A Harang 3
959 PIT – G Cole
960 MIA – J Nicolino 2
969 MIN – T Milone
970 TB – D Smyly 2
971 SEA – R ELIAS 2.5
972 CHW – C Rodon
961 STL – C Martinez
962 ARI – R De La Rosa 3

I will update with Market comments in the morning.

10:30 Update

Well the market has continued where it left off yesterday ahead over 2% as I write this. I received a few emails questioning about getting in too early and leaving money on the table:)

Let me start out saying that this method almost never catches the exact low or the exact high…nor is it designed to. Taking money out of the middle is the intent of the mean reversion trades. Breakout trades are completely different and I will discuss those some time in the future.

So you can almost always expect to have a paper loss after initiating your position and almost always expect that you could of made more money by staying int a bit longer…That is a given on mean reversion trading.

Right now we are experiencing life time events in the market. 10% drops in 5 days are historical. 1000 pt daily swings are historical. I am very satisfied on how my methods have performed this month when many traders have lost an unbelievable amount of money. My methods do best when their is volatility but its reasonable. Right now the volatility is hard for any method to manage.

I closed my 3 mean reversion swing trades this morning and they are hitting a 89% success rate. I close another 3 that are a little different type of mean reversion method and they are hitting 92%. And the SPY/SSO trades that I post here are hitting a 86% success rate.

Comparing this to the Breakout trades that range from 55 to 65% success rate.

This gives you an idea what to expect. Mean reversion trading has to be managed by position sizing as they do not have a stop loss. All back testing that includes stop loses without exception reduces the EV significantly.

Feel free to send me an email with any additional questions.

If you want to follow my swing trades just send an invite to RICKJSWINGS for a two week free trial.

For those of you whose trial is running out you can sign up for 24$ a month through Paypal. Just send to my email address: riccja3@gmail.com

9:50 Update

MLB Weightings for early games
964 DET – R Wolf 1+
965 TOR – M Estrada
966 TEX – Y Gallardo 2++
967 BAL – C Tillman 1+
968 KC – Y Ventura
953 CHC – D Haren 0+
954 SF – M Bumgarner

9:25 Update

Thursday MLB Play
Cin +181

951 LAD – Z Greinke
952 CIN – A DeSclafani 3+

Another day and another 1% gap..this time its up. Most likely no swing trades for me today and the six trades I have on now I plan to exit shortly after the open.

Euphoria is everywhere right now. Everyone got a good nights sleep last night…and are giving their trading buddies a high five thinking this downswing is over. Myself I do not think its going to be as easy as that. The market is still way under its 200 day moving average and also about every short term moving average you can think of.

A rally like yesterday looked more to me like a bear market rally then a healthy bull market rally. My thinking is their is a good probability we head down and test the lows in the next 30 to 60 days for the complete washout of the retail traders. I think that is the most likely scenario. Of course we may get a V shape recovery like we have in the past but remember the market does not have the fed in its corner. Bernanke and Greenspan are long gone and we have Yellen who right now is looking to raise rates. In addition we have the multitude of geopolitical disasters waiting to happen that could also cause havoc in the market. Finally last but not least we have a political system here in the U.S. that is about as dysfunctional as it gets. I just do not think traders are out of the woods yet.

I am sure the poker players that invest were ready to jump off a bridge before yesterday. I had talked to a few. I have to laugh a bit as during 2008 at its worst point one of the players actually had a bottle of malax at the poker table next to his chips! Omaha 8 players can really be a source of amusement from time to time:)

In any event I have six swing trades on at present and plan on exiting all six shortly after the open. Then I will be looking for better opportunities on the next move down.

If you want to follow my swing trades just send an invite to RICKJSWINGS for a two week free trial.

For those of you whose trial is running out you can sign up for 24$ a month through Paypal. Just send to my email address: riccja3@gmail.com

twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)

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