3:15 Update

Turns out nothing developed in MLB tonight but here are the updated MLB Weightings:

951 CHC – J Arrieta
952 PHI – A Morgan 1
953 MIL – W Peralta 2
954 PIT – A Burnett
955 NYM – B Colon
956 ATL – S Miller 2+
957 STL – J Garcia 0
958 CIN – J Lamb 1+
959 TEX – D Holland 1
960 SEA – F Hernandez
961 TOR – D Price
962 NYY – L Severino ppd
963 DET – A Simon 0
964 CLE – D Salazar 0
965 COL – J De La Rosa 1
966 SD – T Ross

The game that had the best chance was the Yankees but the game was postponed.

Two football games tonight

College Football:

Louisiana Tech
Western Kentucky

The betting is 63% on Louisiana Tech with the line moving with the betting -2-106 W Kentucky to -2.5-105 Louisiana Tech. Not sure what is going on in the game but must be a big service putting out Louisiana Tech. In any event my variables are neutral and models are neutral on the game. No bet for me either way. A coin flip. There is one other variable that I look at but its not predictive until about 5 min before game time. We have a long way to go from then but I will take a look at it and see if it gives a hint where the right side is on the game.

Pro Football:

Pitt
NE

Betting is 66% on NE with the line moving from -7even to -7-115. Variables are split on the game. Models are also Neutral on the game. Needless to say its not a consideration in the NFL contest but Sunday a number of games look pretty good. At least right now! If your thinking of betting NE you really cannot consider it at -7.5. You have to walk away from the game. -7 seems about right to me based upon everything I look at.

8:30 Update

Wedn no plays in MLB. Although if you have been taking a look at the new weightings it appears to be I am on to something here. Much better so far(do not laugh please!)

I had my sights on two games last night MIlw and Bost. The numbers were close but not quite there.

Again tonight a few games that look promising but I am going to wait until later today to take another look at them. No more front running these games.

Early MLB Weightings:

951 CHC – J Arrieta
952 PHI – A Morgan 1
953 MIL – W Peralta 2
954 PIT – A Burnett
955 NYM – B Colon
956 ATL – S Miller 2+
957 STL – J Garcia 0
958 CIN – J Lamb 1+
959 TEX – D Holland 1
960 SEA – F Hernandez
961 TOR – D Price
962 NYY – L Severino 3
963 DET – A Simon 0
964 CLE – D Salazar 0
965 COL – J De La Rosa 1
966 SD – T Ross

I will post comments on the NFL and College football game coming up tonight later this afternoon.

7:40 Update

I exited my swing trade long for a small loss just now. I do not intend on gambling on the fed. I think its a close call whether they will raise rates now or not 1/4%. Its as close a call as to what the market will do in response but what is not a close call is that market most likely will move 100 to 300 points. If Bernanke or Greenspan were at the helm there would be no debate. In addition they would of made it clear by now there would be no raise in rates until the global uncertainty is settled. But Yellen….who knows.

The bulls thought they had the market back and all was safe Wedn morning when the market gapped up over 1% and at the high point was up around 160. Then when everyone felt they were safe and started buying hand and fist a strange thing happened. The market reversed and ended up down 160. So now everyone that got in on Wedn is underwater and hoping the fed will bail then out today by announcing no interest rate hike.A hope and a prayer. Not a good way to trade.

Myself I am mostly flat. I did 2 day trades that were 1-1 but my winner was 4x bigger then my loser. I also have on 1 short swing trade that I mentioned yesterday morning. Remarkably it did not get stopped out in the mornings run up and is now back to break even on the trade.

As you can see I am being very conservative in this market dabbling from time to time preserving capitol until I feel the odds are strongly in my favor. And even then its not that easy.

Several quotes to keep things in perspective:

“Failure isn’t fatal, but failure to change might be” – John Wooden

David Tepper: “There’s no cushion of safety in the stock market right now.” “This is not a time to make money, but to not lose it”.

Today its watch and see before the fed announcement. I expect some volitility after the announcement. Logically if no hike then market goes up and if a hike it goes down. Easy…..we will see!

On an up note…NFL regular season starts tonight (finally) I will post some comments on the game later this afternoon.

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RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
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