3:50 Update

Two Football games tonight:

Cinci
Memphis

Betting is 60% on Memphis with the line moving with the betting from -4.5-106 to -7.5 -108 Models are neutral on the game. Variables slightly favor Cinci. This game is a pass for me. Its too late if you like Memphis to get on them as a line move like this over a key number should be paid attention to.

Washington
Pitt

Betting is 69% on the Giants with the line moving contrary to the betting from -4 to -3. Models are neutral on the game. Variables favor Washington. This game is also a pass. I do not see anything to bet with. You do have a reverse line move that favors washington but the key number 3 is involved so that negates it a bit. Perhaps at +3.5 I would lean a bit towards washington.

12:15 Update

Thursday MLB Play
Oakland +135

MLB Weightings

951 PIT – J Locke
952 COL – C Bettis 1+
953 NYM – S Matz 0
954 CIN – J Smith 0
955 PHI – A Asher
956 MIA – J Cosart 1
957 MIL – T Jungmann 0
958 STL – M Wacha 0
959 SF – M Bumgarner 0
960 SD – I Kennedy 0
961 ARI – P Corbin 1
962 LAD – C Kershaw
963 TEX – C Hamels
964 OAK – C Bassitt 3
965 CHW – C Sale 0
966 NYY – M Pineda 0
967 TB – E Ramirez 0
968 BOS – W Miley 0
969 CLE – Co Anderson
970 MIN – K Gibson 2
971 SEA – J Paxton 0
972 KC – J Cueto 0
973 BAL – T Wilson 0
974 WAS – T Roark 0

Looks like no relief for the market as the dow is set to open down almost 1%. We are still quite a bit away from the lows at 1830 About 85 pts in the SP500 to be exact. That is my thought as to where the market is headed. The risk is sharp relief rallies as the market heads that way. So taking shorts here is not an easy go as the volatility will be quite high. In addition this drop is coming during the weakest time of the year for stocks so if I am lucky we will get the drop to 1830 with a clear cut captitulation of 500 to 1000 pts down in a day. Will be interesting to see how this scenerio plays out.

I am flat looking to take short swings …very short term. Then when the market gets the capitulation start establishing longs for the 5 strongest months of the year. Sounds easy:) We will see.

Oh almost forgot…Yellen speaks later this after noon. What could go wrong:) If it were Bernanke I would be positioning long before the speach. Now not a chance!

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