Two games tonight in football:
Betting is 63% on the road Favorite and the line has moved with the betting from -4.5-106 to -7-112
Both models and variables are neutral on this game. A coin toss. However if you like Miami its usually not a good time to be betting them after a 2.5 pt move involving the key number 7.
The betting is 60% on the road favorite and the line has moved from pick to -3 +102. Variables slightly favor Pitt. While the models are split on the game. I am passing but again as in the college game tonight the time has past for betting Baltimore after a 3 pt move involving the key number 3. Nothing clear cut however in this game.
Both games are good games to sit back and watch. If your at the poker table and can get a player to give you a no juice bet then the dogs would be the way to go. But giving up 5% on these two games for me would not be the way to go.
After a busy week it looks like the market its going to have an open of up about .15%. Very Boring! I am long 4 positions with nice gains and looking to not extend my welcome as the trend is clearly down. I still feel we will be testing the lows with a chance of capitulation. That would set the stage for an excellent opportunity to get long for the best 5 months of the year.
Not much else to say today. As far as triggers to cause a capitulation other then just general fear. The government shutdown seems to be off the table right now at least until Dec. But Syria is top on the list right now and any intended or unintended clashes that result in fire between russia and the U. S will send this market down like a rock. In addition even a rumor of this happening will have that effect. Not that anyone would cause a rumor to spread to take advantage of making money in the market:)
So until Syria settles down a bit I would not be loading up in the markets right now. Things should settle down within a few weeks and that just happens to coincide with getting back into the markets.
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