3:00 Update
Oakland is up to -270 on Pinnacle so we have another 10c more to go before I am going to be betting on the game.
There is a college football game tonight Florida Atlantic at East Carolina. 63% of the public is on the home Favorite and the line moved from -20.5 to -20 . I do not see much here. I do have a model that favors E carolina but for me its going to be a pass for me tonight.
NFL Thursday
Tonights NFL Game is a real puzzle. The line opened at Pinnacle -9.5 even and is now -7.5 +109. On Cris -8.5 and is now -7-120. the public is on Baltimore 54%.
My models all point to Baltimore with the points. And if Baltimore had not won the super bowl last season I might consider putting them into the hilton contest. But it has not been a winning proposition to bet on the super bowl winner the first four games of the season. Matter of fact if you faded the super bowl winner the first 4 games you would be hitting a win rate of 56% vs the spread.
To further complicate this Denver is not 100%. Miller is out, Clady and Walker are probable but not 100%.
There are better games to chose for the hilton contest. I am passing on this one.
No plays on Wednesday. Our Tracking setups went 4-0 with Home dog % going 1-0, sept Home dog 1-0 and home fav 2-0.
Today a very short schedule in baseball and this morning I see nothing in the way of plays or tracking setups.
There is one late game that has the potential to become a play but I need Oakland at Pinnacle to to break the -275 number. If that happens I most likely will be taking Houston.
I will monitor the lines today and if anything shows up I will update.
Also we have football tonight. Both NFL and College.
The nfl game tonight will not be a play for me nor will it be a pick in the Hilton contest. I will post some comments on tonights football a bit later.
Finally from time to time I like to comment on poker hands. Last night I have to say I observed most likely the worst play of the year in Omaha 8. Not to say there are some pretty bad plays but this one stands out in a league of its own.
I picked up akJt suited on the ace. I limped with the hand and there were 3 or 4 callers with the button raising. So we have 5 people in the pot preflop for a raise.
The flop comes AQJ rainbow. I checked and the original raiser bet and I raised with one caller and the raiser calling. To make a long story short the person that called two small bets behind me had KK75. Now i would be interested in the thought process behind that call:)
But of course it came little little and that person got half. I guess the original raiser had 3 aces or two pair on the flop with no low draw.
RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
