11:30 Update

In College football tonight 3 games. The public does not really give us any guidance tonight. 51% on TCU 56% on tulane and 60% on troy. As to troy they are the road dog and are carrying 60%. This normally would lead me to take a look at the game but the line opened at -10 and is now -7. The move was caused by one of the leading handicapping services putting out Troy as a play tonight. Its too much of a move to go with them and I would not fade them.

Tracking setup for tonight ( I do not bet these)

Texas Tech +3

In the NFL game tonight the public is on NE 57%. The line opened at -11.5 and is now -11-109. As far as I see the game its a toss up. I have variables that point to both sides. So a clear cut pass for me tonight in the NFL.

Wednesday no plays. Our tracking setups went 2-4. Road dog A 2-0, Home fav 0-2, home dog % 0-2.

Thursday MLB Play
1/2 Unit
Tampa Bay +107

Tracking setups ( I do not bet these)

Mets +136

Sept HD
Tampa Bay +108

Football tonight both college and pro. I will update with these a bit later.

As most have noticed I have been in quite a downswing recently. This is not my worst but it is rapidly approaching it.

When you gamble day to day you are going to experience downswings that test your patience. In my 10 years of poker full time I experienced two of those. And they were brutal. In this sports blog this is the 2nd.

You have to realize that in sports and poker about 98% of the players end up losing. To end up in the top 2% requires skills that most do not have and discipline that even more do not have.

There is no way to control the vagaries of variance. Poker players attempt it by changing seats, scrambling cards, deck changes, going for a walk after losing a hand….but the only way to logically deal with it is money management period. You play through the downswings and if you have appropriate money management everything will take care of itself. These swings always end at some point. When? They can go on much longer then anyone would even begin to contemplate.

There is one other factor to consider in the above. Everyone’s mental psyche is different. Myself I can take almost any type of downswing in stride now. That has not always been the case but you learn through the years. But if things are getting to you….your mad, desperate, betting more then you normally would to get even etc then you have to take a break from it all and regroup. Your mental health is much more important then the money.

Over the years I have seen players truly go off the deep end during a big downswing. And its not a pleasant site…unless of course it someone you do not like:)

Enough of my comments…..but you get the drift.

Good Luck Today

Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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