3:00 update

A comment:

“Nc state opened at -13. It’s now -13.5. No reverse line move”

It all depends what book you use. I use pinnacle and Chris. I have found them to be the most reliable. And also usually amoung the first to post lines.

11:30 Update

Two football games tonight and one is a play.

The public is 81% on the road favorite and the line opened at +14 and now is -13.5. A reverse line move at a very low public number. In addition my models show Clemson to be overvalued, and there are other variables that point to NC St. But there is on variable that points to Clemson so I am going to put the game out as a 1/2 Unit play.

Thursday NCAA FB Play
1/2 Unit
NC St +13.5

In the NFL Game tonight the public is on Phil 54% and the line has stayed pretty steady at -3. I have variables that point to both sides along with my model showing the number to be in the correct range of lines. So there is nothing I can see that would lead me to go with either side of the game.
A clear cut pass for me.

10:15 Update
Thursday MLB Play
1/2 Unit
Tampa Bay +101

This is a Sept Home Dog setup.

No plays on wedn but our tracking setups went 4-1. Road Dog A went 3-0, Home fav A went 1-0 and Home Dog % went 0-1.

Today again no plays although there is one game that is very close. If Tampa Bay can become a home dog it will be a sept home dog setup. Right now on Pinnacle it even. The only place I can see where Tampa is a home dog is Matchbook. So I will monitor the game and if it becomes clear I will update.

Tracking Setups ( I do not bet these)

Home Fav A
Milwaukee -141

Home Dog %
Toronto +112

Two football games tonight. I will comment on those before I leave for the Venetian today.

Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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  • Greg

    Nc state opened at -13. It’s now -13.5. No reverse line move.

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