Thursday…Fed Day

3:20 Update

Two football games tonight


Betting is 53% on KC and the line moved from -2.5 -105 to -3 -116. Models slightly favor Denver and variables slightly favor KC. The game is a pass for me


Betting is 61% on the road favorite clemson with the line moving from -5-110 to -4.5 -108. At most books the line is -5.

Models favor clemson and variables are neutral on the game. I am passing on the game.

10:45 Update

Nothing again today looks good in MLB

Early MLB Weightings:

903 MIA – J Cosart 1
904 WAS – T Roark
905 STL – J Lackey
906 MIL – J Nelson 1
907 OAK – S Nolin 1
908 CHW – J Quintana
909 KC – Y Ventura
910 CLE – C Kluber 1
911 BAL – C Tillman 0
912 TB – M Moore 0
913 HOU – L McCullers 1+
914 TEX – C Lewis
915 LAA – H Santiago 0+
916 MIN – T Milone
917 TOR – M Estrada 0
918 ATL – M Wisler 0
901 CHC – K Hendricks
902 PIT – C Morton 1

I will have something on tonights football a bit later.

The markets continue to bounce. This is a good example that your opinion has to be tempered with reality. My thoughts were overbought due for a swing low with perhaps a test of the lows and instead we get two 100+ days to the upside! The trick is not to get buried when your opinion is wrong or the timing is off. I got stopped out of a short stock trade yesterday and am going into today with 1 short trade.

The markets are even more overbought now. In addition right now bad news is good news for the markets as they respond to the upside regardless of the news. But that could change today as the fed comes out at 11:00 AM today. The odds favor a sells the news as typically run ups or downs before big news events tend to reverse when the news comes out. Of course this is not 100%.

But people are mystified when great news comes out and the markets after a run reverse immediately. It happens all the time so be prepared.

My plan is perhaps to try a scalp before 11 and then reevaluate after the fed announcement. In the works today is the first half of my SPY/SDS trade if we get a rally after the fed announcement. In addition I will be looking at short trades but only if triggered in individual stocks.

Thats my plan…now lets see how it works out!

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