Thursday and the Markets are gaping up almost 1% - Rickj's Handicapping Picks

Thursday and the Markets are gaping up almost 1%

4:10 Update

Two more top 26 games coming up tonight:

#21 Iowa State

# 6 Oklahoma

Betting is 54% on Oklahoma and the line has moved from -3 to -4.5-110. Models are neutral and variables favor Oklahoma. Public betting is about neutral although its interesting that the #6 team in the country only has 54% of the betting on them. In addition to that the line move is pretty large for only 54%. I would take a guess that the “sharp” money is on Oklahoma tonight. But I am passing

#23 USC

#12 Utah

Betting is 67% on Utah with the lin moving from -4.5 to -6.5. Models and variables are neutral on the game. If you like Utah I think its hard to lay a 6.5 when the opener was 4.5. Those numbers get very valuable in this area. I am passing.

 

12:15 Update

I received an email about an hour ago asking about the increase in plays all of a sudden.

College Hoops is broken up into 4 seasons.

  1. Preseason play
  2. Season Play
  3. Conference Tournaments (where we are now)
  4. Post season NCAA Tournament

 

Typically preseason is the most plays. But conference tournaments provide a number of situations that you do not find in regular season.  That accounts for the increase in plays. Its pretty much like this each year. Then we get to the NCAA Tournament with its own unique situations however the number of games drops dramatically after the first round.

 

10:30 Update

Next top 25 game for today:

#19 Duke

#23 Notre Dame

Betting is 65% on Duke with the line moving from -2-106 to -2 even. Models are neutral variables slightly favor Duke. Public betting in relation to line moves slightly favors Notre Dame. I do not know how you could pick a side on this game. At least,  the way I do it. I am passing on the game.

 

9:20 Update

Top 25 matchup coming up this morning:

22 Baylor

23 Texas

Betting is 51% on Baylor with the line moving from -1 to -3.  Models and variables are neutral. If you like Baylor I think its too late to the party. Public betting does not give any clues however hard to lay 3 when the line opened at 1. A pass for me

 

 

8:30 Update

Wednesday we went 3-5 on Plays and 2-1 on NBA Setups.

I do not have much time this morning but I need to address a concern I have.

Before march 1st, we were very close to 60% winners on over 200 plays in college hoops. In addition, to a bonus, we were +14 units in the NHL. That’s almost +40 units since the college hoop season started. Now I doubt that there is another service that can come close to that. with very little drawdown.

But yesterday I had to deal with two subscribers that I think my response and there communication to me will provide some benefit for all following this site.

Now we all know that the plus side of gambling can be a lot of fun. Plays come in, close plays go your way very little goes wrong. And that has how it has been up until march 1. Now we have hit a drawdown. I hesitate to call it that as my definition of a drawdown is much different then most.

But I get two communications yesterday and I thought I must be on about 20 units this month. So I went back and recounted not once but five times. As I could not believe the number I came up with. 14-17 in college hoops for the month. And I still cannot believe it based upon the communications I got.

So what were they? Will the first be asking me how in the world I could take Stanford +2.5 as Washington was the softest line he had ever seen? Complaining that I put out Stanford as a play which leads him to bet the opposite of what he thought was a sure thing:)

Now irrespective of the fact there are no lines that are way off. And there are no lines that are giveaways and the softest ever seen. But the idea that a few days of a few loses has invoked that type of reaction to me is fascinating.

Now on to the email I received late last night: essentially it was a rant about my game selection and his overall dissatisfaction. I will not bore you with the details or my ranting response. But it all goes hand in hand with human nature preventing you from making money gambling.

These two examples are right on point.  14-17 for the month!!! What is going to happen when we have a 20 unit downswing.

Ok enough on that this morning however if this first 10 days of the month is causing you consternation then please whatever you do do not sign up for baseball.

Let me finally mention I can relate as I have been there and done that. But please 14-17?

Ok tipoff in 30 min I had better get back to work

Rick

 

 

 

The ESM is testing the 2000 mark for the 2nd time in the last several hours. My guess is that we blast through 2000 only to reverse shortly after that. But it’s a guess:)

This gap I do not think is one you want to join long in the markets. Typically playing for a gap and go is low odds. Although huge gaps have lower odds to fill on the day. So there is the dilemma.

The game plan for me is now to look for a short hopefully at higher levels. The market is still in an area where mean reversion is out of the question on either side. And out of the question for taking swing trade longs.

My decision to take a very short-term position on my short trades was well timed. So far my timing has been pretty good on these trades. Let’s see how long I can keep that up:)

Have a good day trading today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

 

 

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