Thursday night update:
Well I got to the hilton to put my picks in for the weekend and discovered that buffalo was playing in Canada instead of at home. They were going to be one of my plays for the weekend but it hinged on them being at home in addition to seattle traveling from the west coast to the east coast.
So…I then went to my pick on st louis…but the hilton line is a bad line -3 while the line is -2.5. I could most likely pick anytime for a coin flip and come out better then trying to think I can take that much the worst of it.
That brought me back to Cinci. So I now have cinci -4 as one of my plays in the HIlton contest. It ranks on the bottom of my 5 picks. So again I still have another opportunity to be 0-1 going into this weekend.
I will be out most of the afternoon so am posting this a bit early.
1 game tonight in the NFL:
The public is on Cinci 69% tonight and the line opened at -3-106 and is now -4-109.
I considered Cinci in the Hilton contest but that was before the line moved to 4 It was at 3 for awhile and I was thinking if it was at 3 in the Hilton contest I would put it in as a pick…since not much to choose from this week. But it has moved to 4 and out of consideration.
My model show 4 to be a fair value on the game.
So tonight is a clear cut pass for me. The good side is I will not be 0-1 going into Sunday:)