3:00 Update
Wednesday we went 2-0 on our plays winning with Orlando +4.5 in the NBA and Carolina +119 in the NHL. Our two setups in MLB went 1-1.
I put out 3 setups for college football yesterday thinking they were last night. Looking over the games today my comments are identical.
One NFL game tonight:
Seattle
San Fran
Betting is 60% on the road favorite with the line moving with the betting from +4.5 to -6.5. Models favor San Fran. Variables are split on the game but lean toward San Fran. I am passing on the game however I am including San Fran +6.5 in the Hilton Contest. Looking over the games this weekend its quite a hodge podge of games with a lot of conflicting information. At least the information I take a look at. So I am going to have to pick a few games that I would never consider as a play. This falls under that category.
In the NBA:
Thursday NBA Plays
Lakers +7.5
Portland +5.5
Thursday NHL Plays
Columbus +173
Vancouver +104
Another quiet open so far this morning with the markets up about .35% 45 min before the open.
The market has finally worked off its overbought condition by time rather then price. The late day drop in the market yesterday triggered my exits on all positions before the close so I am flat and waiting. Now its just a question of seeing what scenerio triggers first of the three that I set out before I am going to jump into the market.
The markets are not like poker in the sense that if your a medium limit player in a ring game of average players your play of most hands are written into your mind. You have a foundation strategy that you might adjust slightly depending on the players but for the most part it stays the same.
In the markets its a bit different. There are just too many variables every day to have a foundation strategy that works in most situations. So you have to have many stratifies depending on what you are seeing in front of you. The hardest of the trading is the day trading the Emimi contracts. Most of the movements are fueled by large computers running very complex algorithms to take advantage of people like me and you! And they do an excellent job.
But the further you get away from day trading the more competitive you can be in trading. Breakout trading is the toughest…but as long as you are strict in your money management you will make money. Mean reversion trading I have found to be the best but again it does not come without a cost. You have to also have money management in place as the Mean reversion trades are the toughest from a psychological basis to experience. So you position down to take the psychological element out of it.
This is just a touch on the above subjects as its much more complex:)
Well lets see what today brings. I am flat and most likely nothing but a scalp today if that.
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