Back to normal this morning at least for awhile. Markets are up slightly before the open. Of note, Metals are down, Biotech up and that is about it.
I am flat in the markets now and on a short-term basis, the market is neutral. On a longer term, it is slightly bearish at this stage.
It looks like my assessment of the effect of the polling and the true odds on the Georgia special election was correct. You will most likely find this bias to be the case on most of the elections going forward.
If you want to get some polling that might give you an indication of reality I would suggest looking at Rasmusson. They seem to get closer to the true number than most. Some are so far off these days you have to scratch your head how they can maintain any credibility.
So where there is a sharp bias in the line it creates an opportunity for the sharp handicapper. I think we really have that bias here.
I only include it into this section of the site as the politics is critical these days as a backdrop of interpreting the markets and then acting on those interpretations.
Today my trading will all depend on $ADD. Without a short-term, bias, trading becomes riskier.
Things have settled down on the political front at the moment but it is a time bomb ready to explode at any time. On the geopolitical front things are heating up substantially. Just another risk that could affect the markets.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks