A game in the NFL tonight:
Betting is 58% on Baltimore and the line has moved from -10+106 to -7.5+101. Models favor Baltimore, Variables are split but slightly favor Baltimore, and public betting is neutral on the game. For some reason the line has moved 2.5 pts off the opener. In the NFL usually its a good idea to fade a big move like this. But with 58% of the betting on Baltimore my rules preclude me from playing Baltimore. So I am passing on the game completely.
Wednesday we had no plays. Nothing even came close to a play yesterday. So we had a rest and we will need it as tomorrow begins the busiest time of year for sports bettors and handicappers.
College basketball begins tomorrow with only 44 games to handicap. Then you add the sports going right now, NHL , NBA, College football and NFL and things become a madhouse.
But that is the way I like it. Up early and start the day reviewing all the games to find the best games that to me have the best expected value. That is what I do!
As I indicated many time college hoops is the most complex of all games to handicap. The their are 4 separate seasons in college hoops and each one of them have separate handicapping characteristics.
In addition totals are thrown into the mix where in the other sports not many value opportunities for totals. Historically though the totals in college hoops have been very good..
Looking at the previous seasons:
Season 72-50 -2 59.01%
November 34-20-1 62.9%
December 19-21 47.5 %
January 19-9-1 67.8%
1 unit plays
My record keeping in college hoops could be neater but this site for record keeping has changed over the years. In addition I had a move of the site and had to do some digging to get complete records as the person that did the move lost quite a bit of data.
In any event college hoops has been solid. But remember, last season we were crushing it with being up over 40 units going into the last month or so of hoops. And we had one of the biggest draw downs I have had losing 20 units in about a month. We still ended up over 20 units for the season but that is a reminder that draw downs do happen.
We have been very fortunate the last 12 months to have almost no draw down to speak of. Part of this is because of my refining techniques. So lets see if this can continue.
So far today we have one 1 unit play pending.
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Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks