A lot of green this morning on the charts just 30 min before the open.
The stock market is gapping up about 1/4% lead by QQQ.
Of note, the dollar and financials are the weakest, while oil and metals are leading the way to the upside.
I view this neutral, without the financials the upside is most likely limited.
The question of the day is does Trump ever sleep? Every day now there is market-moving news directly related to Trump’s decisions. Yesterday it was the gutting of what was left of the ACA and today its most likely the gutting of the Iran deal.
The only way either of these survives is if Congress gets its act together and starts working. Of course, they would have to take a break from the Russia collusion theory they have been devoting the last year on. Or the one bipartisan idea they work on continually with the Dems, protecting the special counsel.
But the American people whose health insurance has been destroyed. They are much too busy to put aside partisan politics for that.
So Congress will get these two issues thrown into their lap where it should have been in the first place to fix. And that the way Congress is now will result in absolutely nothing.
So that leaves us as investors what do we do here?
I still think the pressing issue is tax cuts. That is going to determine whether this bull keeps going. It’s also my opinion that tax cuts this year are dead in the water.
0 Dems and not much of a chance of getting 50 Republican senators on board. You have essentially anti Trumpers that are really lame ducks that could give a whit what happens after they leave. That is the state of Congress right now.
Its been bad before but I do not recall it ever getting to this point.
This is not good for anyone, whether it’s the Dems, Establishment Republicans or the American people. Although the non-establishment candidates backed by Breitbart are going to get a windfall from all this dissension.
So I would be very careful here. Its all a matter of timing of course. And my cautious timing has been way off as I have been warning about impending event risk for a while now.
So take my opinions with a grain of salt. Perhaps if I were in my 20s embarking on a career of stock investing I might be more risk tolerant:)
But I sat through the housing crisis, which was about as bad as it gets. With home prices plummeting over 50%. I know as I lost about 700,000 in home value during that fun time:) Although all is good now as prices are back and even higher than they were before that debacle.
Makes betting several thousand on a football game seem like peanuts!
In any event, I have been accumulating a few small positions. I also have a long trade in the dollar. It has pulled back after a nice run-up. And it has pulled back so much we are close to an exit. The next few days will determine whether I stay in this trade or not.
Today I am in day trade mode depending on how breadth looks 10 to 15 min into the trading day.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks