Has Trump lost his base over DACA? How will this affect the stock market?

The market is lower 20 min before the open with the SP500 leading the way down at -.60%.

Of note, the only green on my screen is TLT and USO. Everything else red.

I view it as a slightly negative bias into the open.

I did not take any trades yesterday as we had nothing in my basket of stocks that had a 3-time test of the breakout point.

You can take the 2nd test but the third is usually the best.

Sure you’re going to miss some trades but overall you will end up with a higher % of winning trades.

One thing I believe is very positive this morning is N. Korea launched another rocket last night and the market is not off 200 points. How the market reacts to negative news is often a good barometer of where we are heading.

My thought is if we get more weakness today to look at a short term swing on a few ETFs or stocks.

When I say short term I mean 1 to 3 days.

Not much else going on except perhaps some in Trump’s base going hysterical that he might not take the hardest of lines towards the dreamers. This is even before the final decision is in.

How much of that is fake news remains to be seen? After all, didn’t Trump say he could shoot someone in the middle of times square and it would not affect him with his base:)

We will see on that one. Ann Coulter has already stated that if Trump does not take a hard line on dreamers she has little to no problem with him being impeached. Such loyal Trumpers!

The reason this is important is if Trump loses his base not only will he not be reelected in 2020 but his clout with Congress will evaporate completely. The only reason Congress is going along with the Trump agenda is because of the rabidness (for lack of a better word) of Trump’s base.

I am quite confident that leaders in Congress are monitoring daily polls as to where Trump stands with his base. Not the polls you and I see, but internal polling that actually is somewhat accurate.

No matter what you think of Trump and his politics, Tax cuts, infrastructure, a workable health care system are all items that might get through if Trump stays strong with his base. If he loses it Congress will be back in the morass of its own making, getting virtually nothing done except serving themselves and their interest groups.

The above is all important for how long this bull market keeps going.

Today again I am in day trade mode. I will have a few suggestions after the open along with some first 15 min comments.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

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