Nothing going on today but did get an email that I thought would be informative.

“Hi Rick,

One question about your baseball handicapping:

Since it’s unique to baseball that 2 teams will play several consecutive games in a set, it seems to be a pattern that you will pick a team that won as an underdog against the same team on the previous day.

If this is the case, is it because you feel there is added value with the underdog because the wagering public will bet on the favorite simply because “there’s no way the Orioles are going to beat the Yankees again today”?


My Response:

If this is a pattern I am not aware of it. That situation is something I dont even consider in coming out with my picks. I view each day independently of the other.

What this season indicates is that good pitchers and to a lesser degree good teams are over valued when they are road favorites. How much? Well based upon this season about 10%. Since that is what our return was based upon widely available lines. Now if your line shopping and get only .05 better per game that equates to about another 4 unit gain which equates to another 3.5% return.

So you can increase your return by over 33% by just getting .05 better then what is widely available at the time I post. Thats the importance of line shopping!

To further answer your question really the only pattern I can see is that almost without exception we are on home dogs….where the better pitcher is on the road…and sometimes also the better team.

I hope this answers your question.

Twitter: rickjsportplays

  • Geoff

    Speaking of line shopping, I notice that when you post your football plays you don't list the price you got. Is that because you always get the same price of -105, or -110, or because you find someone at the tables that wants the other side so you are getting +100?

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