Nothing Monday but today we have a carry over on Game 1 in the World Series.
In the Nhl there is an outside chance of a play later.
In the Nba..we have a carry over from yesterday…..
A note on the nba:
I am not optimistic that anything will work in the NBA. These picks are for tracking purposes only and I am not betting these. If by chance there is something that shows up this year that seems solid then my plan is to use it for betting next season.
I am going to approach the sides in the nba exactly like I approached the college hoops last season.
A Comment:
“Rick, quick question, but what bankroll %’s do you use for picks and leans? I’ve heard 1.5% for standards and 3% for large plays is the norm, just wanted to get your insight. Thanks!”
My Response:
I have tried various methods and it seems that whenever you get over 3% the drawdowns are too severe. I think a good approach would be anywhere from 2 to 3 %. Right now I am using 3%. I use 3% for both plays and leans.
As far as large plays and standard plays….If I thought there was a significant difference in the quality of plays that might be a good approach…but I doubt that very many handicappers can accurately quantify to make that distinction. So I would use between 2 to 3 percent on all wagers.
Now sometimes you get multiple bets in one day. I lower my wagers when there are multiple bets ….how far…..usually to around 2.5%
It would be interesting to get some input from readers as to what betting approach has been working for them.
Another email:
“Appreciate the picks and analysis. Just curious on betting against Cliff Lee again. I believe the guy has NEVER lost in the playoffs. Is there a point where you just have to ride the hot guy or just stay away or do you just keep playing the value?? Thanks again.”
My Response:
For me its always value…in the long run …you add up all your value plays and you get your return.
I cannot imagine there is any value on Lee in this game. Over 80 percent of the public is on lee. The book makers knew where the public would be when that put out there opening line of +110. I believe there was value at the opening line. And now its up to +117 in many spots.
Does this mean that lee wont win…not at all….just means that if you were faced with this exact same situation many times…your return would be around 10%. At least based upon the number on my value plays this season. (caveat..a very small sample..little over 170 plays)
Good Luck Today
RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
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As far as staking goes I've gone for 1%, and then 2% on the very strong stuff e.g NFL plays. Depends how "mobile" your bank is I suppose, and how serious you would be if you went through a 15-20 unit drawdown about carrying on and seeing it through. Many may have bet at 2% but then given up on the bases (for example) when there was a 10-unit drawdown, even though they would only have theoretically lost 20% of bank, their REAL bank was in fact only 1/5th of what they thought it was, because they didn't have the mental toughness required. You would be better to bet 1% of a bank that you know you will carry on to the end and never utilise the full extent of it (arguably) than have a bank and bet 2% of it but then lose composure 20-25% of the way through that bank on a drawdown.
I don't lower my wagers when there are multiple bets on one day, its natural to expect the majority of volume at the weekends…..more public money and more games on. I'd be interested to hear why Rick lowers his staking when there are several plays on one day.
I think betting amounts is one of the biggest factors as to why so few bettors can remain profitable. I struggle with choosing the best method constantly. I don't know anyone who bets the same amount on every game. I mostly bet CFB and NFL, and if I'm having a drawdown in one particular sport I may reduce my wager. I don't reduced based on betting volume though. Here are a few strategies I've tried:
1, 2 and 3 unit wagers based on Opinion, Pick, and Strong Pick
3 units on all picks, and 1/2 units on all opinion/leans.
A lot of times I will go 5-2 on a Saturday and break even or lose juice because my big plays lose and my leans win. The best method I've found (and hardest to stick with) is a 1 unit play on all strong picks, and I will allow myself 2-3 times a season to unleash a 5 unit play if I really feel good about something.
I wonder what people's opinion is on if bankroll management is more important (and challenging) for Football (few games) or MLB/NBA/NCAAB (lots of games)