Nothing Monday but today we have a carry over on Game 1 in the World Series.
In the Nhl there is an outside chance of a play later.
In the Nba..we have a carry over from yesterday…..
A note on the nba:
I am not optimistic that anything will work in the NBA. These picks are for tracking purposes only and I am not betting these. If by chance there is something that shows up this year that seems solid then my plan is to use it for betting next season.
I am going to approach the sides in the nba exactly like I approached the college hoops last season.
“Rick, quick question, but what bankroll %’s do you use for picks and leans? I’ve heard 1.5% for standards and 3% for large plays is the norm, just wanted to get your insight. Thanks!”
I have tried various methods and it seems that whenever you get over 3% the drawdowns are too severe. I think a good approach would be anywhere from 2 to 3 %. Right now I am using 3%. I use 3% for both plays and leans.
As far as large plays and standard plays….If I thought there was a significant difference in the quality of plays that might be a good approach…but I doubt that very many handicappers can accurately quantify to make that distinction. So I would use between 2 to 3 percent on all wagers.
Now sometimes you get multiple bets in one day. I lower my wagers when there are multiple bets ….how far…..usually to around 2.5%
It would be interesting to get some input from readers as to what betting approach has been working for them.
“Appreciate the picks and analysis. Just curious on betting against Cliff Lee again. I believe the guy has NEVER lost in the playoffs. Is there a point where you just have to ride the hot guy or just stay away or do you just keep playing the value?? Thanks again.”
For me its always value…in the long run …you add up all your value plays and you get your return.
I cannot imagine there is any value on Lee in this game. Over 80 percent of the public is on lee. The book makers knew where the public would be when that put out there opening line of +110. I believe there was value at the opening line. And now its up to +117 in many spots.
Does this mean that lee wont win…not at all….just means that if you were faced with this exact same situation many times…your return would be around 10%. At least based upon the number on my value plays this season. (caveat..a very small sample..little over 170 plays)
Good Luck Today