Monday our ERLM on Northeastern won in a close finish with the end game going our way. Our play on Florida st was a clear lose since they were behind the entire game as a 14.5 pt favorite. And our total in the nba won easily.

There is not much this morning. Also we have taken a pretty good drawdown on our regular college hoop plays. This may very well be a repeat of last season where the plays and results dropped off when conference play began.

Also I am going to start putting out my early plays between 8:30 and 9:00 am pst. rather then the 8:00 am start. There is no hurry to get these out now that lines have tightened up. And it will be nice to see where the early steam is before putting out these plays.

Since there is not much this morning let me mention a setup in the nba that I dont bet but probably should.

The bulls opened at -9.5 and are now at -8 with the betting volume 83% on the bulls. In addition I have a very strong variable I use that favors Toronto. But when I look at my models they have the line at comfortably -12 or more. When you have a big disparity in what the line is and what your models or ratings tell you it should be there usually is something going on that you are not aware of. Power ratings and models that produce predictions regarding the line are good as a general guide but are not something alone that can be used to beat the spread.

I wont be betting on Toronto but wont be surprised if it is an easy cover. And perhaps one day I will actually include this in my betting routine.

I will update if anything develops later today.

Twitter: rickjsportplays

Showing 4 comments
  • Anonymous

    Rick, I'm confused. Isn't than an rml play for the bulls considering the line is moving opposite of where it should be, considering all the action on the bulls?

  • Anonymous

    Oops meant to say raptors. Why does this not qualify as rml play for the raptors?

  • Anonymous

    Rick has already explained that rlm plays take other factors into consideration, and are just another subset that he then handicaps. Since his model favors the Bulls too, I assume that Toronto doesn't qualify by his handicapping criteria, and would only be a play due to the wise guy angle he mentioned. Of course I'm not Rick, but that would be my guess.

  • Anonymous

    Rick- Chicago is back to the -9.5 opening numbers. So basically, one group hit Toronto overnight when the limits are lower, and since then the move has been steadily on Chicago. So wouldn't Toronto no longer be a play even under the angle you mentioned this morning? And if you ever do add this kind of play to your repertoire, wouldn't you absolutely have to wait until right before game time, as opposed to the rlm plays, which also qualify under other criteria? Thanks,and keep up the good work.(There's still 90 minutes until the Chicago game starts, so if there's a late move on Toronto, I would like your original angle even more. But it's also possible Chicago closes at -10+, which isn't so unreasonable with Noah out. Again, to me this points out why these kind of angles have to be waited on).

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