Tues plays

We broke our downswing with a 2-0 day. 1 early play and 1 late play. San fran won for a +1.80 and under on cleveland won for +1.00 or a +2.80 unit day.

Today there is nothing early I can see.

If you want on the email or text messaging list for early and late plays just drop me an email. I will still post both on this blog.

The split between early and late plays is about 50-50 and I would expect that to continue through the rest of the season. These late plays are FREE. Just send me your email address and I will add you to the group receiving late plays.

Poker comments

Variance

Every once in awhile something happens at the tables to give one a good grasp of the concept of variance.

A person that plays occasionally played twice last week in the 30 with a 40-80 kill omaha 8 game. This is a 10 handed game. The first day they played the person played every hand pre flop(ie did not fold 1 hand pre flop the entire time they played). They played for 4 or 5 hours and guess what…the win was around 3,000. It was more but they lost a few hands towards the end.

Then a few days later that person comes back and plays again. I made the person next to me a 10 dollar bet that the person would play every hand for 3 rounds. (after winning the bet I gave the 10 dollars back)

The person again played every hand for hours. And again came away with a nice win.

I might add the persons post flop play was pretty close to their preflop play.

Now I ask…..dosnt this just compel you to play on a short bankroll for higher stakes? And this is what many players do time after time and go broke. Then they scratch their heads and wonder as good as they play how it could happen to them!

The lesson is that anything can happen in the short run and usually does! If your a good player and play within your bankroll and use good game selection you should do fine but if not its almost a certainty you will go broke.

If any of you have more questions or comments ask away…poker , sports, vegas.

On the upper right hand corner of my blog I have a link to all previous posts of poker comments

Late Plays.

we had 1 late play on Monday…cleveland under 10.5 and it won.

Late play record

MLB 08 season
Sides: 21-26 +0.92
Total: 7-5-1 +1.85

Wnba 08
Sides 4-4 -0.20

Arena football
Sides 0-1 -1.05
Total0-1-1 0.00
NHL
Sides 6-6 +1.15
Total 0-1-2 -1.00
NBA
Sides 25-16 +8.20
total 10-12-1 – 1.65
NFL
Sides: 1-0 +1.00
Total: 0-1 -1.05
NCAA fb
sides:
totals: 7-5-1 + 1.75
mlb
sides: 8-23 -11.19
Total: 7-12 – 5.65

Wnba 07
Sides: 1-1 0.00
Total: 0-2 -2.15

Good Luck

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Record to date:

MLB (08 season)
Sides: 23-22 +7.19
Total: 1-1-1 -0.10

MLB(07 Season)
Sides: 71-93 +3.79
O/U: 24-21-1 + 2.40

mlb(06 season,started end of season)
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09

NFL (07-08)completed
Sides 18-10 +7.50
Total 0-1 -1.05

nfl(06-07 completed)
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83

Ncaafb(07-08)
Sides: 19-10-1 +8.50
Totals: 33-15-2 +17.15

ncaafb (06-07 completed)
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63

NBA 07-08
Sides 11-14 -3.60
Total 6-8 -2.35

Nba 06-07 completed
Side 78-77 -2.75
o/u 31-25 +4.98

NHL (07 Season)
Sides: 4-12 -6.75
totals:

nhl06-07 completed
sides 35-36 +6.66
total 4-5 -1.10

Arena Football
Sides:
Total: 1-0 +1.00

WNBA
Sides: 5-1 +3.95
Total: 0-1 -1.05

Oct06: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81%
Nov06: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0%
Dec06: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11%
Jan07: 57 bets + 6.92 units +12.14%
Feb07: 31 bets -6.75 units -21.77%
Mar07: 40 bets -9.75 units -24.37%
April07: 34 bets +3.42 units +10.06%
May07: 49 bets -3.64 units -7.43%
JUne07: 46 bets +14.66units +31.87%
July07: 45 bets -7.26 units -16.13%
Aug07: 37 bets +2.63 units +7.10%
Sep07t 65 bets +11.29 units +17.37%
Oct07: 28 bet +16.10 +57.50%
Nov07: 40 bet +2.00 units +5.39%
Dec07: 18 bets 0.05 units +2.78%
Jan08: 12 bets -3.60
Feb 08 5 bet +0.80
Mar 08 17 bets -5.10
April 08 12 bets +5.91
May 08 9 bets +2.33
June 08 11 bet +1.08
july 08 16 bets -2.22
Year2 170 bet +16.79 +9.88
Year1 734 Bets + 50.70 units +6.91%
Total: 904 bets +67.79 +7.50%

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