“I’ve been fading the Hilton top 5. Don’t know if the numbers were different but fading them went 3-2 for me, not 1-4. HOU+3.5, DET+2, and CAR+5.5 were winners.”
Actually the Hilton numbers were a bit different then your fades. Chicago got +2.5. Arizona was -2.5 …both of those were winners along with NO and Balt.
Tuesday NBA Play
1st Half +5.5
Tuesday NCAA BB Lean
577 W. Ill +13
Tuesday NBA Play
1st Half line +8.5
I am going to track these along with the college 1st half on plays.
Two games in College football tonight.
Bowling Green has 67% of the public on Them with the line opening on Pinn at -10.5-102 and is now
-10-101. On Cris -10.5 to -9.5. Bovada has the game at -10-115. Not much I can see on this game…Models show the game to be fairly valued with variables favoring Bowling green a bit but not much. A Pass for me.
Buffalo has 65% of the public on them as a Road dog. The line opened Toledo -4 to -5.5-107 And on Cris -4 to -5. So we have a line move contrary to the public at 35%. For me I like to see it under 30% to start giving it any significant weight. Although that is enough to keep me from betting Buffalo. My models show toledo to be slightly overvalued with variables split on the game. So Again a pass for me.
Tonight I would give a slight edge to both favorites but not enough even to consider either a lean.
Monday we won our Lean on Tampa Bay in the NFL. Tampa Bay won the game by 3 as a 2.5 point dog.
Today quite a bit to look at.
Nothing in the NBA or NHL yet although there are a few games in the NBA tonight that look promising.
Two college football games tonight….I will comment on them a bit later.
A full slate of college Hoop games. So far no plays today but I am going to start posting leans and tracking setups.
Tuesday NCAA BB LEAN
S. Carolina +13.5
For those of you that want to consider the 1st half wager…+8.5.
I am going to keep track now of both game lines and 1st half lines and see
if we can find any advantage in 1st half plays.
I will update a bit later
Good Luck Today