Tuesday

Final Update

Tuesday NCAA BB Play
1 Unit
581 Montana +7.5

1st Half Montana +4

Also most likely some college hoops plays in the 7:00 games

3:30 Update

Nothing in tonights football game. I see nothing that would lead me to either side even with the public heavy on Northern Ill.

Some comments:

“I have a question. I find it incredibly hard to believe that there is never any value on a favorite. Out of the 15 nfl plays you’ve released this year I don’t think one has been a favorite. 66% win percentage you’re obviously doing something right. Care to discuss your thought process on that”

Yes I agree that is incredibly hard to believe. However for as long as I can remember the public has had a bias in all sports to bet on the Favorite. The books of course know this and take it into consideration when putting out the lines. Its really as simple as that. Until that Bias changes finding value in favorites will be a very difficult task.

“have a question regarding public action. OK, in the NFL I get it. Go into any bar, and fans love the Steelers, Packers, Cowboys, or think Washington can’t win. But ask your poker table buddies about Presbyterian and Bowling Green, and I bet they wouldn’t even know those were college basketball teams. So who exactly is the public you are fading in games like that or IUPUI? You can see percentages, but can you see volume? In other words, is there really a public presence on those games, and is it enough to influence the lines at all? Thanks.”

You are correct. And I do look at the volume of betting on the games. Surprisingly there were quite a few bets on that game. I have a threshold I need before I will consider it for placing a bet on. Many of the games the betting is so light that you have to pass on the game for that reason.

“Rick does not use public percentage or volume in determining his NCAA BB plays.Monday a good day for plays. ”

Actually….for the last few years in the early part of the season I did not. And did very well. As I said before my feeling is it was a fluke rather then my brilliant handicapping. I have discarded that method and now do take into account public betting in making my plays in college Hoops”

Our 1 unit college hoop plays went 2-1. A let down in the NFL however as my 5th pick in the Hilton contest lost. Washington never had a chance to cover bring my record to a little over 54%. I need one of my monster rushes in the NFL to get over 60% and it has to happen immediately.

I will update a bit later with the rest of the sports…..want to get this play posted.

Tuesday NCAA BB Play
1 Unit
521 Presbyterian +12

1st Half +6.5

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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