Final update

Slight edge
Ottawa +137

Bet or pass

Toledo +3.5

4:00 update

Slight edge
Orlando +10.5

3:15 Update

Nothing has changed in college football tonight….still a pass on both games.

Slight Edge
Colorado +120

Monday we lost our NHL setup on NJ and that was all that we had. A slow day.

Today most likely to have setups in both the NHL and NBA. I will update those later this afternoon.

Two games tonight in College Football:


The betting is 62% on the road favorite with the line moving from -3.5 to -4-108. Its -4.5 at some books.

Variables are neutral on the game. Models favor buffalo although they are not all in agreement. Public betting shows no edge I can see. This game is a clear cut pass for me.

Northern Illinois

Public is 69% on the Home favorite with the line moving from -4.5 to -4.5-105. On Chris -2.5 to -4.5. Variables are Neutral Models slightly favor Toledo and no public edge I can see. Again a clear cut pass.

I will keep an eye on the numbers and update if anything changes.

I have been asked about the difference between variables and models. Over the years I have developed models that predict the outcome of the games. These models tend to learn from past data and adjust based upon a number of inputs I use. These models tend to be the least predictive of what I use..although this year they have produced a bit better results. Variables are intangibles that in the past have been predictive of which of the two teams is most likely to cover the spread. It covers a wide variety of situations that tend to work out well over the long haul.

Good Luck Today

Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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