5:00 Update:
I have been asked to give a comment on
#6 Oregon
California
Betting is 87% on the road favorite with the line moving from -3 to -3-110. Models are neutral. Variables are neutral and public betting favors California. Usually, when you get a game that only has 13% of the betting on them you look for reasons to bet the game. But in this instance that is the only thing it has going for it. Saying that I would never take a team where 87% of the betting was on them. You have to ask yourself, how could there be any value on that side?
So I am passing. I am sure most are saying Oregon is hard to pass up. But these are the games you have to pass on if you’re going to make money betting sports.
4:15 Update:
Two ranked games tonight:
#7 Louisville
#8 N.Carolina
Betting is 63% on the road dog with the line moving from -6.5 to -7.5-114. This is a reverse line move on the favorite along with having the betting greater than 50% on the dog. Models strongly favor Louisville. So much so that I would have thought there is an injury on N.Carolina. But I could not find any info on an injury. Variables favor N.Carolina and public betting favors N.Carolina.
This is an interesting game in that typically when models are that far off you have to throw them out and disregard them. Either that or just pass on the game.If the models favored N.Carolina I would bet the game but in this instance, I am passing.
#22 Butler
#2 Villanova
Betting is 58% on the home favorite with the line moving from -10 to -10-107. Models favor Butler. Variables are neutral and public betting is neutral. This game is an easy pass for me. Just nothing there to give any hints on the right side on the game
Good Luck which ever way you go on these games.
After no plays on Monday, we had 3 plays Tuesday and went 3-0. In the NHL we won with Calgary +137 6-5 and in College Hoops, we won with Oklahoma +12.5 54-60 and Wisconsin Milwaukee +13.5 61-67.
So a +3.37 day!!!
Nice when those come along.
Today I have sent out no plays yet but with a full slate of college hoop games tonight I suspect there will be several.
I had an email that I think is instructive:
“can I a quick opinion on this: On average, how far off the line you post could you go and still be Neutral EV? When I can’t get the exact lines I generally bet it if I can get within 5 cents of juice. I pass if my line is a half point worse in Basketball unless the spread is very large. Thoughts? ”
My response:
“On money line games, that way to decide what to do is go to a site that has the lines for all the books. There are many free sites that have delayed lines, vegas insider, Dons best, Sbrodds to name a few.
Figure out which books are using 10c lines. Do not take any worse than the lowest 10c line you see. It would be the reverse for favorites. I use Pinnacle lines for my plays to be consistent. Most of the time you will not be able to get that line, Some of the time you will, and on a few occasions, you will be able to get better.
Spread games is a bit more difficult. That is why when your spread betting the more outs you have the better. What also makes it more difficult is that there are key numbers you need to consider. For instance, as an extreme example if my play was in the NFL for +3 there would be no way to even consider a +2.5 under any circumstance.
As a general rule for all sports if the number is in double digits you do not need to worry so much of betting a worse line by .5 or 1 pt. In the NFL, however, the numbers 3, 4 and 7 are so significant you do not want to fudge on those.
In college football, it is not as important as the NFL as to those numbers. But still, I would stick with that rule.
In hoops 8 or less you do not want to take a number that would cause you to lose if it landed on my number. A tie you can consider it. Again double digits you can loosen up a bit.
Under no circumstance take more than 1 pt the worst of it in any spread game.
Now, saying that if you take the time to have 2 books, one of which produces a sharp line and the other a public line in most instances your worries are over. In addition, you will most likely add +10 units to your per year win rate with that simple addition.
That trick alone would make this service a free service for you if you wish to look at it that way:) As an example, Pinnacle is a sharp book, Bovada is a public book.
Since Pinnacle is not doing business here in the U.S. you can go with a number of books that put out sharp lines. Just go to SBR or Don’s Best. and also go to the free sports insights delayed odds sight to get the public numbers. Watch and see which books consistently shade their lines according to the public betting.”
Continuation:
“So when you track your record and ROI On the side of your site, this is with all Pinny lines(-105 spread bets etc)?”
My response:
“I see how you could get confused about that as I do not make it clear. No, the records on the spreadsheet are based upon -110. As are the units on the site. Now, on money line, I do use the Pinny lines but they are a .08 line rather than a .10 line.
I need to make that clear . Glad you brought that up.”
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
