Nothing Monday and again nothing today.
Also I have to apologize. I have not been
very good at responding to comments. My only defense is that I look for them in my email account rather then on this board…and for some reason my email software has been directing them to trash.
So I will monitor this blog for comments and try to keep up to date.
I will respond to some recent comments now since things are a bit slow.
“Rick I feel like your underdogs win SU at a pretty decent clip in NFL. Today you snapped off two big underdogs.
Have you considered adding ML plays as well? Is it profitable?”
I dont look at money line plays when there is a point line on the game. The reason is that the spreads on typical money line games is way to high to be profitable. Most books your looking at a least a 50c spread. Very hard to get positive ev with that vig.
Now on games that are 1 or 2 point favorites…..a very good handicapper I know has said that its best to take the money line rather then +1 or +2 or even +2.5 in football. The spreads are thinner and his approach seems logical and a good approach to me.
“My lines are both a half point worse that the prices you took.
I can get S Car+6x and Kent+6
Would you play at those prices?”
In ncaa fb Its not a bet killer if the line is a half point less then what I post. In the nfl the two key numbers are 3 and 7….so if I put the game out at those number you either get a better number or stay off the game.
“rick at some point mentioned during the season he was following some road dog picks during the baseball season. Did those pan out Rick?”
it was breakeven at best…so not something I am going to spend time with next mlb season.
“Speaking of line shopping, I notice that when you post your football plays you don’t list the price you got. Is that because you always get the same price of -105, or -110, or because you find someone at the tables that wants the other side so you are getting +100?”
The line I post for point spread lines is what is widely available at the time I post. I dont post what I get because I really didnt think about it:) I will start posting that with my picks…..Since many of my bets are on matchbook…I dont lay anywhere near -110. For instance on Sunday night I had phil +3 +115
Also if you have to lay -110 that is ok…but my rule is never more then -110.
“Am looking forward to your thoughts on the MLB playoffs–series picks and indiv games. If nothing stands out let’s hear your leans..
Nice work and thanks.”
Since my universe of game I handicap in mlb is home dogs there will be very few games. But If there is a lean or a play I will post it. I dont even begin handicapping the other games.
“I of course understand your being done with your sports handicapping by 7 am or but at that time the percentage of the public can’t be very accurate given that the public doesn’t do much betting over night and so early in the morning.”
Yes logically that would seem to be the case. However since my public threshold is higher in mlb then most other sports I can usually tell that it will be met early in the morning. Although there are situations where I state that I am considering other games and the reason is to determine where the public will be shortly before the game.
“Perhaps at some point though plays should be weighted as a heavier play than leans to max the positive outcome? “
The sample size is much too small to do that yet. Now after 2000 bets you might make that determination. Myself i bet the same on both.
“Hi Rick, I wanted your opinion on something. For college football, normally there are 1-2 games that I really like. And then there is a 2nd tier of games (call them leans) that I also have a good feeling on, and there are generally 10-12 games a week in that area.
I’ve read that some pro bettors feel that in college football because the season is short, you want to maximize your action across as many games as you can.”
I strongly disagree with that approach. First the season is an artificial time frame. The real time frame you should be concentrating on is your lifetime betting. All season are just a continuation of your betting experience.
Its similar to poker where many players think in terms of the one session they are playing. Thus they play longer when they are losing (and usually worse) and take small gains. The reality is each day is just a continuation of the next with a break for whatever you do when your not playing poker.
When your done for you lifetime playing poker or betting sports….you add everything up and thats your return. Daily or seasons really are not very relevant.
Now there are reasons to think in terms of shorter timeframes but not for what you bring up. They apply more to psychology and rethinking strategy.
I think I have covered most and have gotten caught up. If I have missed anything just leave a comment and I will follow them more closely.
Good Luck Today