Nothing Monday….Today in the nhl maybe one game later.

In the Nba….one play:

New Jersey Under 197 (I do not bet these…for tracking purposes only)

A few Comments:

“Hi Rick,

out of the guys you’re up against in the Hilton contest is there any that you admire/respect,or any that you think are just lucky. You mention Fezzik quite a bit but a lot of internet reports seems to be quite uncomplimentary about his picks and the way he goes about his business. Just wondered what you thought?

Keep up the awesome work buddy.”

My response:

I do not know Fezzik personally. But its enough for me to know that he won the Hilton contest 2 years in a row to come to the conclusion he is an excellent nfl handicapper. The odds are just too great to accomplish that to think it was by chance. As far as I am concerned he is one of the best nfl handicappers around.

Saying that I want to make a few comments about contests. To cash in the Hilton you need to hit over 60% for the season picking 5 games against the spread each week.

My feeling is that there is no one that has that type of expectancy in the Nfl picking 5 games a week. So your going to need some help from variance to cash. So why enter?

Because at least half of the entrants have no better then 50% expectancy so they will need much more help from variance. Combining this with the fact that value is added by the Hilton…you are getting more then full value.

another comment:

“Hey Rick,
With College basketball starting today, when will we start seeing some plays. Those of us who follow you religiously did VERY well last season especially early on. Thanks for the plays. All of us here in internet land really appreciate all your hard work finding us winners.”

My Response:

I am going to do college baskets this year. I will post the plays usually in the morning as opposed to overnights since many cannot get down on the overnights and the books move the line more on overnight betting.

I am going to attempt to do the totals this year but am not going to bet them(similar to the nba).

One Caveat about ncaa baskets. Last year was a great year. We hit 60% for the season on the sides with very little drawdown. There is a reasonable chance that last season could of been a fluke. It was my first season using my methods without public sentiment.

So be aware of that possibility. I will be betting all of the sides I post….but as always use good money management!!!!

Good Luck Today

Twitter: rickjsportplays

  • Anonymous

    Rick you said,

    "I am going to do college baskets this year. I will post the plays usually in the morning as opposed to overnights since many cannot get down on the overnights and the books move the line more on overnight betting."

    So are you still going to be handicapping the games the day before and then betting them yourself, but only releasing the games on the morning they are being played right? The reason I ask is because I think this would weaken the result of your released picks. As I am sure you know there are groups out there that make a living betting sports. They play overnight and move the lines quite a bit. So there will plays of yours that get their support and as a result will move out of your betting range. You will then not post these plays the next morning. Then there are your other plays that will no get their support that you will post as plays since they didn't get the sharp money support and the lines are still available. So the result will be that we are only playing the plays you like that get no sharp support while passing your plays that get the sharp support. So I think it would be better if you posted the plays as you handicap them.

    Just my two cents……
    Thanks for your consideration and ALL your wonderful picks.

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