Monday we won our Fairfield -9.5 . It was a close game but in the last 5 min Fairfield pulled away and won by 15.
Our nba total tied and it was a Miracle! We got a 37 pt 3rd quarter to get a tie.
Not much going on so far this morning and unless something really looks good expect any plays closer to game times.
“Here is a comment that I think should give everyone an idea how to follow these picks:
posting last week, but its pertinent now with last night’s memphis under and i’m sure a lot of people have < 197
i have been following your blog for quite a while now, and i have a question..
you recently said you can expect a 5-6% roi on most sports.
my question is that for most of us, it is very hard to get the lines you do. at what point does either having a half or full point less in say college basketball, or laying -120 or -130 to buy onto your number affect the bottom line to the point where it isn’t +EV?
many days, the decisions i face are either bet at 1/2 or a full point less than you got, but the point and pay more juice, or don’t bet.
any help with that?
thanks in advance. “
Lets start out with money line sports. If your not getting a dime line your really not going to be able to follow the nhl and mlb. 20c lines are just not viable except in instances where the book inflates the favorite to the extent that the dog really is a 10c line or better. The Bellagio is a 20c line but there have been times when the line on the dog has been better then 10c books.
For online books…matchbook and pinnacle seem to me to be the best for money line sports.
For point spread games…again…pinnacle and matchbook. But its very important to have multiple outs where you can line shop. Especially if your laying -110
Now….if I were following my picks from the outside my strategy would be as follows:
1 Early in the season…before conference play starts….I would bet the plays even if I had to fade a point or so move.
2. After conference play starts in college hoops…then I would not take any worse then the number I post. I would wait it out and often times the lines come back as at this point in the season there are many sharp bettors looking to fade these big moves. If you miss a bet..so what…its not like these are sure things:)
3. As it applies to the nba…..again these lines are so tough in the nba….my comments above even apply to nba totals.
4. I wouldn’t buy any points period…wouldn’t even consider it. Too expensive. Your already giving up vig on the initial wager why add to the vig?
“One more thing I would add to this is a lot of the smaller books dont have NBA totals up until about 10 AM pacific time so when you post an NBA total at 8 am pacific time a lot of us dont get the same line you do. Maybe start posting NBA totals a little later? “
I am posting them when it looks like I cant wait any long…ie when the line begins to move. I try to hold off as long as I can. Again if you dont get the number wait….Last night I think the total went back to 197.5 so if you would of waited you could of gotten a win on the total.
“Ever give any thought to playing those small dogs on the money line instead of the point spread? That way the games that you figure at value would still be plays, but you wouldn’t have to deal with late game foul hell situations. I’ve always personally thought that was the way to play those dogs under 7… “
Yes…i have…Perhaps in 1 or 2 point dog games…I will have to give it some more thought:)