Not much has changed as far as plays since this morning. Our Northern Iowa is now down to 11.
I want to mention I had put the bet in last night at +13.5. Would it benefit anyone to get these for the overnight lines? If so I can put them out in the evening if they are clear cut.
In the NBA not much looks very good except one game.
501 Indiana -7.5
Well I started the morning posting the wrong team…hopefully everyone caught it as at +12 Northern Iowa was the only team in the ball park for that play…..
Received an email last night I thought would be informative:
“I wanted to get your thoughts on 2nd half betting. I’ve been seeing some lines put out that I think are pretty soft – but I’m not really completely sure if I’m on the right track.
Basically, what is happening is that a home underdog will open as an 8.5-point dog for the full game (before tip off). They’ll take a 2 point lead at halftime and then for the second half, they’ll be 6.5-point underdogs at worst. How can this be a logical line? I understand perhaps the favorite is going to play harder, but why would the underdog stop playing hard? Especially on their home floor.
In this instance, I bet the underdog at 6.5. However, there are other cases where for example the favorite is laying much less than half of the full game line when the game is not even out of hand. I just don’t understand how the score of a close-ish game would dramatically affect the 2nd half line. What are your thoughts on this?
Intuitively, I would think that in a close game, both teams are playing hard, and the only thing that matters is there talent. If Pinnacle and 5Dimes have the full game lines at +10, then the underdog must be 10 points worse than the favorite. And if that’s the case, the underdog is most likely 5.5 to 6 points worse in the 2nd half of the game. So if I’m getting 9 points in a close game, how can I not take it?
Am I on the right track?”
Let me start out by saying what I tell everyone when I discuss half time lines…..They look much better then they really are!
I have a computer program that spits out the half time line based upon the original line and the half time score. Surprisingly it comes very close to what the books put out for the number at the half. I bought the program thinking it would have some benefit for finding value ..instead it showed me that the line the books put out at the half are based 90% or more on pure mathematics.
My thoughts on half time betting in addition that the sides look much better then they actually are is considering basketball is a momentum game that value shows up when you have a big home favorite losing at the half. Considering that momentum will most likely shift and that the imbalance in player ability tends to show up more in the 2nd half, and finally being on the road makes the home team a good half time wager in those situations.
Saying that…when I have looked at those…you typically have to pay a bit of a premium over what the software tells you the line should be and what it is! No gifts there. But perhaps value. If I had the time I would track these…or if I could find an excel database with half time scores and lines it would be a simple task to test out this theory…but I do not:(
When ever you look at these ideas you have to go on the assumption that usually the smartest out there is the book makers and proceed from that assumption!
Hope this helps your analysis.
Monday we lost our 1/2 Unit play on Baylor +10.5 as they lost by 17.
Today another light schedule but a play shows up this morning.
Tues College Hoops:
1 Unit Play
523 Northern Iowa +12
I will update later with any additional college hoops plays and the NBA
Good Luck Today