Monday we went 1-2 on our nhl 1/2 unit picks. Also my leans on louisville michigan game split…with the side covering and the total a complete bust.
I received the following comment but didnt see it until after the game:
“Do you like Louisville and under mainly because the public is on the other side? From a handicapping standpoint I like Michigans ability to shoot the 3 and spread them out. Wichita shot the 3 very well vs Louisville early and Michigan has even more deep shooters. The emergence of McGrady in the last 15 games also I feel makes Michigan stats a tad skewed when he wasnt playing early in the season”
I am not bringing this up because louisville covered..but only that its demonstrative of how I handicap games.
I do not ever attempt to analyze a game based upon the players and their capabilities. That is far beyond my expertise. Since for the most part I couldn’t name a player on any team!
My handicapping is confined to evaluating variables that would seem to have little or no predictive value compared to the method above. When in reality my methods (along with many others that use this method) Have a much better predictive ability as to what side is more likely to cover.
There are many people that have tried and continue to try the approach similar to the above handicapping and its probably the toughest way to predict who is going to cover.
Any day of the week I would much prefer taking the opening line , look at what the public is doing and what the public has done throughout the day, and watching the line move relative to the opening line and the public. Throw in about a dozen high percentage angles and that is the method I prefer.
But as you know from those of you that have followed me over the years even my method is no cake walk! The public numbers and the movements have different meanings and thresholds based upon the sport and even then that can change from year to year. A good example is the NFL. The laydown no brainer plays are not near as good as 3 or 4 years ago. Just look at the week in the nfl last season where EVERY public favorite covered..and there were about 10 of them in one week!
In any event…..no baseball or nba tonight…perhaps an nhl game.
Also I am gone from tomorrow through sunday. I am not going to attempt to handicap any games while I am gone. If it were football season I would…but nhl, nba and baseball…I think I will give it a rest:)
Look for one nhl play a bit later.
See you Monday.