I am going to be following a new tracking setup for sides on Baseball runlines:
Tuesday MLB Run Line tracking setup: ( I do not bet these)
L.A Angels -1.5 +165
Tuesday MLB Play
973 – – D Holland
974 – OAK – B Colon Even
“Hey Rick. A couple questions if you have a minute.
I know you use a wide variety of variables to handicap games. Are there some games that you are far more certain of than others? I see sometimes you say 1 unit as opposed to half unit – But I was just wondering if when you get a game that you are really confident about you could make it clear that its one of your better plays?
Not sure if that makes sense. Bad headache today.
Pretty much just want to know if you can tell us when you are extra confident in a play?”
We are in a time period now that covers three sports that have been the most difficult to handicap using my methods. Thats why almost all the plays are 1/2 unit.
As you can see from the NBA this season …things have improved dramatically. Few plays but high reliability.
The playoff setups so far are just setups that I do not plan on changing them to plays next year. However we still have a ways to go. Right now they are breakeven.
In baseball we will see how things work out this season. But I am optimistic that the Home dog plays will all be one unit next season. There are a few this season that have been one unit but everything has to be perfect and even then the +ev between the two is not much.
When you ask about me being really confident it would be a matter of a 2%ev compared to maybe a 3.5%ev. The positive EV on these plays is small….although 2 to 3 % in my opinion is huge…just how you look at things. If your used to following handicappers that put out 10 star plays or locks of the year you will find my methods very boring…however my methods should keep you out of trouble and make you money year in and year out.
Finally combine my methods with a solid money management technique and you have something. I recommend putting aside a bankroll solely for sports betting….and bet 2.5 % on each play…..with the exception being when multiple plays are put out reducing the % to 2%.
So if you have have a 5,000 bank roll your starting bet size would be 125 dollars. If you want to be more conservative you can do 2% and 1.5 %. And there is nothing wrong with being conservative when it comes to sports betting considering that at best only 2% of the sports bettors make money betting sports.
I am open to questions and opinions on the above!
Monday there was no plays or tracking setups.
We are hitting a very slow period right now. These come about from time to time and I have found its best to just go with the flow rather then trying to stretch things to find a play. It seems whenever I get out of line things do not work out so well:) And of course that is the way it should be!
Today too early for plays although again today there are a few games that could produce plays later in the day.
Tuesday NBA Playoff Tracking setup:(I do not bet these)
Indiana O 179.5
I will update around 3:30 or so.
Good Luck Today