Tonights NBA Game:
Let me start out by saying I have no angles that I feel are strong enough to lead me in the right direction in the NBA finals.
Saying that lets take a look at the game to see if there are any clues to the right side.
On pinnacle the line opened at -2-102 and is now -2 -108. 49% of the public is on the favorite. So not enough to say a smart money move either with the small line move or the % number. Also the looking at the last game Miami blew out San Antonio. Looking at the above it would lead me to believe San Antonio is the right side tonight.
But….nothing is strong enough for me to even consider betting the game.
Tuesday MLB Play
979 – C Hamels
980 – MIN – P Walters +108
Monday we went 1-1 on our 1/2 Unit MLB plays. KC won 3-2 as a +133 dog but the cubs lost easily as a +108 dog. So a small gain for the day.
No tracking setups again today. Also nothing clear cut in the way of plays today. But there are several games that might turn into plays. Check back around 3:30 as I will update then.
A Poker Comment:
I wish you would write more about poker. I have read through all your old poker posts and find them very entertaining! Your insights into the day to day activity in the poker rooms and some of the players you run into are fascinating.
I do have a question. I play quite a bit out east in Atlantic City. And I am always finding it to be very difficult in deciding when to quit the game. I know you have written on this subject and wish you would be a little clearer on your thoughts.”
Well……lets start with my basic assumption. That if you have an edge the more hours you put in the more you will make at the end of the year. The coin flip example is a perfect analogy to explain this concept.
Now……deciding if you have an edge in the game is not an easy task. You must first be able to take your ego out of the equation and give an objective decision as to your edge…taking into consideration the player make up of the game and the house take. If you are truly a positive ev player then this should be an easy task for you. If you are finding it difficult to determine this then you have to question whether you are a positive ev player since the analytical skills are very similar.
Now assuming you are a positive ev player and my above assumption is correct then it becomes a very simple task of deciding when to leave the game:
1. when you are tired
2. when you start making mistakes
3. When you start becoming very irritable (sometimes things just start getting to you)
4. when the player makeup of the game is no longer favorable
Of course you have to understand that being 1,000 ahead and quitting the day at -500 is not a pleasant experience. But you have to be ok with that because that is just the normal day to day swings taking place.
Now saying the above…if you are really clairvoyant and can predict the future then disregard the above. But I doubt any of you fall into that category! By thinking you can time your exits based upon anything but the above…if your a positive ev player you are fooling yourself and costing yourself money in the long run.
One thing you can count on is the seasoned professionals know this concept all to well.
I hope the above clarifies my ideas on quitting time:)