I think I will take a few days off.
Played for about an hour today.
Pocket Kings vs Pocket 4’s – opponent hit a 4.
Pocket Jacks against 10 – 4 off suit (some drunk guy called preflop) hit a 10 and a 4. It really is mind boggling.”
Yes Mind Boggling is a good word for it:) Its never any fun but you really need to take an analytical approach to it all. Its only variance at work. And if you play long enough you are certain to be exposed to the outer limits of the bell curve…on both sides. All you can do is focus on playing your best game….and protecting your mind in a brutal downswing!
Monday we had no plays…..our two mlb total tracking setups went 1-1.
Today again nothing even close to a play
Also so far no tracking setups today.
A Poker Comment:
Couple Questions about poker.
I have read everything you have written and found that is has drastically improved my game.
I am currently on a downswing. Been almost a week straight of continual bad beats. One outters always popping up on the river. Guys pulling flushes or straights out with only 3/5 cards they need after the flop and getting the turn and river to miraculously hit.
Guys calling pocket Kings or Aces with low cards and flopping straights. It just seems no end to it.
The first few days I was able to get past it. What I would say to myself is “I am playing the game right. I am making the right calls, making the right bets, sucking guys into pots properly.” The odds are in my favor but continuously the 3 – 10 % chance of losing the pots are hitting. But an extended downswing like this is just killing me. I am starting to get really frustrated with it.
My question is what do you say to yourself to get through these extended downswings? What kind of mentality do you have? How do you not let it bother you? Because it is starting to effect my game whether I like it or not.
Any input would be great.
Thanks for your time.”
Let me start out by saying 1 week of “running rough” is really not that long. It can go on for months! That is why when your gambling full time you have to play within your bankroll.
So if your frustrated after a week of this…..I would first…take a week off. Get your thinking straight. Get your confidence back. And then give it a go again.
Or if your not looking to take some time off….switch games. I always found it helpful when I ran rough to switch to another completely different game for awhile. An example for me would be switching from limit omaha to limit hold em. The mindset required to play the two games are a bit different. Whereas in a full ring game of Omaha 8….your choices are really very limited if your playing the game correctly. But in limit holdem…it requires much more decision making.
Variance is a tricky thing. What you do not want to do is fall into the trap that many full time poker players fall into. They play at a limit that is higher then their bankroll allows. They get away with it for awhile as variance can work both ways…but eventually that dreaded downswing occurs….not the 1 week one…but the 3 month one….and they are broke. To be successful…irregardless of your skill level…..you have to get this concept right!
My condolences to you as I have been in the exact same spot you are in. Bad beats after bad beats with no end in sight. You sit down thinking you will be getting a fresh start for the day….your dealt aa in holdem….and the dealer misdeals! The dealer forgets to burn a card and it costs you the pot….you flop three kings and get beat by runner runner 10s. Its never ending.
One thing you can count on though….it does change….your uncertainty and mood swing will change. And you will be back confident and playing well. But there is no way to know when it will end…and also there is no magical wand to end it. Only measures you need to take is ones needed to protect your mind:)
One additional way to look at it is…..there is no difference in losing 300 big bets in a week or 4 months…..so analytically the right approach is to just play through it…see it for what it is…and concentrate on playing well. That in my opinion is the optimal approach.