Turkey in the news again this morning with the stock market off over 1/2%. What are the odds of a trend day down today?

The rally did not last long as the stock market is gaping down this morning with the Nasdaq leading the way.
 
Most of what I look at is solidly in the Red, except TLT +.37%, GS +.05 %, and @DX +.15%.
 
What is interesting is BAC is off almost 2% but GS is about unchanged. Good to watch after the open to see if this continues.
 
To me, this is a solid negative premarket and it would not be surprising to see a trend day down today with these premarket numbers.
 
Its mostly about Turkey again today as they show no signs of releasing Pastor Brunson. If anything, Turkey is entrenching.
 
It is not so much that Turkey alone is that significant to the U.S. economy but the spillover to other countries could well get out of hand.
 
Already we see Turkey announce they will continue to do business with Iran. Also, they have taken steps to slow down the economic slide caused by the friction with the U.S.
 
Where this all ends is anyone’s guess. But if you think the U.S. President is stubborn, he has nothing over Erogahan.
 
After all, it was not long ago that Turkey shot a Russian plan out of the sky for violating its border.
 
The issues are far too complex while all the variables are most likely unknown to reach an educated decision on the merits of anyone’s position here.
 
All you need to know is that Stock Market seems to be getting very nervous right here. Combine that with August and September historically being the weakest months for the stock market and who knows:)
 
If we get a trend day down today it will almost certainly trigger my first mean reversion entry in SPY. I like to leg into a full position 1/4 at a time with these. In rare instances, I will carry a position over 100%. That has happened once in the last 2 years.
 
Its also been a while since I have made a bottom reversal trade. There have not been many good looking setups. But I am watching GOLD. So far we do not have much of a bottom formation. But I suspect in the next few months this is going to set up for a very good trade.
 
The Retail Sales number just came out and it crushed estimations to the upside. The key with this is that the market barely moved when the number came out.
 
Remember, when the market does not react to very positive news it typically means more weakness is in the cards.
 
I am long a core portfolio of bonds and income producing assets. I also have a basket of swing trades where the turnover is high.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

 

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