One more game coming up in the NFL:
Betting is 57% on the road dog with the line moving from pick to KC -2.5-113.
My models are neutral, Variables point slightly to Pitt and public betting points to KC. A mixed bag on this game and I view the game as a toss up. If the line were to move to -3 than the value would certainly be in taking the points. I am passing
First a correction. With Brown winning Yesterday that made Saturday 3-6 for -3-02 units. In addition for the month we are sitting at -6.89 Units.
Oftentimes I get emails as to how I can make a mistake on the scores of the game as I do it from time to time. I get up very early in the morning to start my handicapping routine. If you saw the numbers I look at usually beginning at 3:00 A.M. from the previous day’s games you would think I might be a bit on the looney side:)
But that’s what I do. And I enjoy it. So it’s not much for me to make a mistake like this. In addition, I typically do not look at my books balances or cross check as the people I do business with I have known for years.
In any event, I wanted to explain that before I got some emails again.
Betting is 60% on the Dog with the line moving from -4-103 to -5-+102. So just to start we have a red flag where more than 50% of the betting is on the dog. That, as you know, gets me looking at the favorite to see if there might be any EV there to wager on. My models slightly favor Dallas. Variables are split. Public betting favors Dallas. I need variables to point to my direction before I will bet the game. So for me, the game is a pass today. However, if your thinking about the dog here and going with the public you might want to take another look at the game.
Good Luck whichever side you choose.
A busy day on Saturday with 9 plays and a disappointing 2-7 day for -5.12 Units.
In college hoops, we won with Utah +2.5 and lost with Brown +9.5, Missouri +14.5, W. Carolina +19.5 and St Johns +12.5.
In the NHL we won with St Louis +147 and lost with Dallas -109 and Phil +138.
In the NFL We lost with Houston +16.
Today so far I have sent out 1 Play.
We are 1/2 way through January and we find ourselves in the negative 8.99 units. That is after a nice run of almost +50 units over a 4 month period.
It certainly feels worse than it is but we have had sporadic good days mixed in with the negative ones. This is the time to stay disciplined with your bet sizing.
Human nature what it always pulls on you to do something destructive when your gambling. That is why there are preset rules to minimize the effect of human nature on your performance.
It took me a long time to not only recognize that but also to get it under control. It is not easy but it is necessary if you’re going to be a winning handicapper.
Two NFL games today and I should have some comments on the games shortly before game time.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks