Time to review the political odds and take a look at a new potential wager.
On Jan. 13th the odds was 5 to 2 that Trump would finish his first term. My suggestion back then was that laying the 5 to 2 had a lot of value and that the odds were closer to 100 to 1. Today looking at the odds they are now up to 5.5 to 1. I would still lay 5.5 to 1:)
On Feb 16th, I discussed the odds of Trump being impeached his first term. The odds at that time was 55 to 45 that he would not be impeached his first term. I suggested taking the 45 to 55 on impeachment had value. I put the odds at close to 2 to 1 he would be impeached. The odds have now moved to 3.5 to 1 he will not be impeached his first term. I would still take the 3.5 to 1. The Dems are left with nothing else at this point. I doubt they will be able to restrain themselves.
On February 19th discussed the odds of McCabe being indicted by the end of the year. The odds was 2 to 1 against. I suggested taking the 2 to 1 as I felt the odds were closer to 2 to 1 in favor of indictment. This morning the odds sit at 45 to 55 against. Odds are still tightening. I would still take the odds of an indictment.
Biden running in 2020. The odds are about 6 to 1 that Biden will run. I would take the 6 to 1. I view it as 2 to 1 at best that he will run for a variety of reasons. I went through the reasons and suggested taking the 6 to 1. This morning the odds are now 5.5 to 1. I would still take 5.5 to 1 that he will not run. My prediction Odds now at least 2 to 1 against.
My last post discussed which party wins in 2020. The odds this morning are 58 to 43 in favor of the Dems taking the White House. Now, under normal circumstances, I would say take the odds knowing you have a great bet.
However, there are many variables at play that are very difficult to quantify. I say that because there are intangibles at work.
- Voter fraud. It is massive. And unless the White House gets it under control, a runaway election may well be close
- Establishment republicans sabotaging Trump’s reelection. This is a certainty. Many were involved in this coup attempt. Many are working behind the scenes to undermine Trump. They are working overtime, trying to figure out a strategy to make sure he loses in 2020.
- My guess is they cannot win with a primary challenge. However, I expect an independent run, backed by never Trumpers and some establishment Republicans. Before its over people like Romney will be backing the independent. Ryan also.
- On the plus side for Trump is Trump. He knows everything and more of what I am discussing. He is most likely the best political strategist to come along in a very long time. So, if there is a way he will find it:)
- So the odds, right now I put them at 2 to 1 in favor of Trump. What should be at least 20 to 1 because of the intangibles I adjust it to 2 to 1. Never underestimate the corruption that still is active in the U.S.
The next odds that look to have some value to me is control of the house after 2020. Right now the odds are 2.5 to 1 in favor of the Dems keeping the house. That looks a bit high to me. My thoughts are its a tossup. The reason being its a presidential election year and the polls are way undervalued on Trump. Just as they were in 2016. If my assumption is true, I could see the Republicans winning the house back easily. But I put the odds at even money.
Now another wager I will be looking at in 2020 is fading every establishment Republican who has come out against Trump, in the primary. There will be a lot of wagers to make but when the smoke clears I think you will have a nice profit. Do not cherry pick. Just bet them all. And I would also include a fade of Graham and McConnell to that list. You will be getting nice prices in the primary, So you will not have to even hit 50% to make money. The anti-establishment bias will do a lot of establishment Republicans in if they get primary challenges.
As always, I give the following Caveat. I am a Trump supporter. Not because of any particular ideology but because it’s my opinion he is the best person for the Country. I am not burdened by any particular ideology and am issue-driven. So I see things a bit differently than most. More as an outsider looking into the chaos that has evolved. And as I have always said, when there is chaos there is value:)
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds
Skype : riccja
