It is amazing, After yesterdays carnage we are limit up in the futures market this morning for all indexes. Crude is +6%. TLT is +1.5% Vix.x is -13.8 %.
This has the makings of a nice rally today. It would not shock me to see yesterday’s loss evaporate today. And then again it would not surprise me to see this rally reverse back to the lows. I would wager on the rally, however.
If you are trying to swing trade this market, best of luck to you:) It is best to stand aside until volatility settles down a bit. You cannot make money with overnight trading right now. Day trading is tough even for the most experienced. So unless you have a proven track record, stand aside for now.
This Corona Virus scare will run its course. I suspect after a month, and the death toll does not reach 100 in the U.S. Americans will wake up to the fact that yet again the media have duped them. Now, that is my humble opinion:) But this playbook of the media gets old. They run the same plays over and over.
They have closed down all NBA games, all NHL games, and the NCAA tournament March madness is toast. So for sports betting its waiting until MLB decides to start their season. Just when you thought you have seen it all:)
As always my suggestion is to turn off the media. Get your news from reliable sources.
Here is a stat for you:
Swine Flu stats under Obama:
U.S. Cases 60.8 Million
U.S. Deaths 22,469
Obama declared a national emergency after 1000 dead and countless infected.
Coronavirus death toll in U.S. “41” yes….41.
Yes, you heard that right 41. There are more bicycle deaths each year than what the Coronavirus is causing. Regular flu brings the U.S. 30,000 to 70,000 deaths a year. That is each and every year. But here we are at 41, and the media reports each death like its the biggest news story of the year. If they did the same thing for these:
Heart Disease: 635,260 Yet people keep eating junk food and become overweight
Cancer : 598,038
Accidents: 161,374 with 25 Million people a year having emergency room visits.
Lower Resp disease: 154,596 primarily from smoking and 2nd hand smoke, and older than 65
Flu: 51,537 Flu is the 8th leading cause of death and yet there is 0 hysteria and panic during the flu season.
Kidney disease 50,046
Sepsis: 38,940 mostly related to hospital error
Liver disease: 38,170 most from excessive alcohol use
Then we can get into gang-related deaths and illegal homicides and rapes.
Get the drift. Corona Virus reporting is being weaponized just as the Russia, Ukraine and every other hoax have been since Trump became President.
You do not have to be a genius to figure this out, as the media uses the same playbook over and over. This time however they are causing untold damage to the economy and the mental health of Americans. Something has to be done to reign in the media from this “yellow” journalism.
Now is their a Corona Virus, yes. But is it something to be worried about, I say no. The only thing that worries me is the hysteria the media are inciting. That will cause many more deaths than any virus.
Now, sooner are later the gig will be up, as it was in the Russia hoax and the Ukraine hoax. It will be in a month or so when the death numbers in the U.S barely break 200 if that.
The markets will then rebound with a vengeance, as the stimulus being put into place right now is unprecedented. There is liquidity being flooded into all markets at a furious pace right now. My guess is we are at new highs by the end of the year if not sooner.
But it’s all in the timing. the maxim is “Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent.” Its best never to forget this:)
So I will be day trading and doing some income trades for the time being.
Keep a clear head while others are losing theirs and you will be fine
Now, let’s take a quick look at the political odds:
Biden: 84/16 to be the Dem nominee
Dem VP pick:
I have no idea who it is going to be. But Harris does not give Biden anything because California is locked up already. Klobuchar is the most likely as she represents Minn, a state that lately has been trending toward Trump. But as of right now, it’s hard to figure who it is going to be.
Presidential Winner: The line is back to a tossup after Trump being in the lead almost 6/4.
Control of the House: 76/27 in favor of the Dems. This has been a big swing. It was about 6/4 a week ago. There has to be a lot of value in taking the 3 to 1 here. I rate it as a tossup at best for the dems.
Control of the Senate: The Republicans are now 55/45 to keep the Senate. This is down from 5/2. I actually think the better value is taking the 3 to 1 that the Republicans regain the House then betting on the Republicans to keep the Senate. Senate Republicans have done almost every they can possibly do to lose control. I could go through every instance, but it’s too traumatic:)
Head of the DNI: Ratcliffe 62/38. Putting Grenell in as acting DNI was a masterstroke by Trump. Now the Senate Republicans are between a rock and a hard place. No doubt they feel its a shame they can not run the executive branch also:) But, Burr has agreed to back Ratcliffe. I do not think this is a cinch and the 2 to 1 might be overdone.
Finally in Alabama Sessions is a 9 to 1 dog right now to get his seat back. As far as I am concerned, he has no business being in the Senate. He cost the U.S. 40 million at least letting the Mueller witchhunt run its course. And that is after they knew in the first month there was nothing there. He allowed this to go on. There is no way he should be allowed anywhere near DC.
That is it for this morning.
Be careful investing today:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks