Friday we had 5 plays and went 2-2-1.
Our 1/2 unit side won with Colorado +141 winning 6-3, we had 2 1/2 unit totals with Colorado Under 9 pushing and Houston U8-110 losing 4-13 and 3 overnights with Milwaukee -106 winning 3-2 and Baltimore +121 losing 4-6. Our 3rd overnight had a pitching change with Seattle changing from Gaviglio to Miranda.
So a slight (very slight) gain for the day.
Today so far I have sent out 2 plays.
June is now behind us and we have 3 full months of MLB accounted for.
The record for the 1st three months is:
TOTAL FOR MLB SEASON
-0.845 UNITS
TOTAL FOR APRIL
-2.52 UNITS
TOTAL FOR MAY
-5.21 UNITS
TOTAL FOR June
+6.885
Some things to note about the first 3 months is we started out 0-9 with all of the plays 1 unit. Needless to say, the method I used for early season 1 unit plays will be put in the dustheap of disregarded methods next season.
That is the way handicapping works. It is a continuous process of adding new methods and disregarding older methods that cease having a positive EV.
There are very few methods that stay solid. However, there are a small few and they are my most guarded secrets:)
Another thing to note about the first 3 months is the lack of swings from top to bottom. The top to bottom so far this season is around 11 units. For wagering daily that is really a small number.
We are often times betting on 5 or more games a day. I would have expected the top to bottom to be in more of a 20 to 30 unit zone.
But I did make several changes in addition to the methods added and eliminated I do at the beginning of each season. I added a filter that I did not start using until the later part of the season last year. This filter affects both 1 and 1/2 unit plays.
Essentially if the filter is neutral on the game the 1 units become 1/2 units and the 1/2 units are not plays. In addition, I have tightened up my models a bit as I noticed several areas that were red flags to me in reviewing last season.
Last season after the first 3 months we were sitting at an 8 unit loss. We went on to finish the season with a +13 unit gain with +21 units from July 1st on.
Those of you that were with me for the entire season of MLB in 2016 are not surprised how this season is going.
For those that are new to this service, I know more than you can imagine how hard it is to accept that wagering in sports is a grind. With all the hype about sure winners, 90% winners, the play of the year, the play of the month, guaranteed winners it understandable that many sports bettors have expectations that have no connection with reality.
What you get from this service is not only reality but what to expect from reality. Not that I am a soothsayer:) But I am a realist based person who relies on logic as my guide. In addition, I try to invoke that approach to subscribers and others that have been following this site.
There are very few that survive the arena of handicapping and sports betting day in and day out. It requires not only cutting edge methods but also iron clad discipline. And even then, you always have to be alert for bad habits creeping back in that have been ingrained from years and years of losing.
We all have them. Yes including me:) I have told over the years some of my stories of boneheaded things I have done in the past.
What is consistent with them all is that it always begins with an inner voice telling you that it’s time to let go and gamble a bit! Loosen up and gamble!
I am sure the message is different for everyone but the gist is the same. Something triggers that sends this message to your brain. And then depending on your degree of discipline, you react.
The important thing to know is that 90% of the betting population have no appreciation for the process that is at work. They go through a never-ending behavioral feedback loop without even the slightest appreciation for what is happening to them.
The other 10%(or less) understands what is going on and then depending on their understanding of the process and the desire to break the loop conquer it from occasionally to almost always. (It is never a never!)
Myself, I have made it to the almost always (I think). I used to tell poker plays that my tilt factor was about once a year. And thinking back that was probably accurate. However, my tilting is probably much different than how others tilt!
Another thing I noticed is that when you give in to the inner voice to gamble typically good things do not happen to you. Normally, you do not get lucky and win a lot of money. To the contrary, the worst usually occurs and you get a large enough pounding to shake you out of your temporary lapse.
I went a bit longer this morning this I planned but this is a topic that is extremely important if you’re going to be betting on anything every day. If you do not have an appreciation for the psychological factors that in play I doubt you will be able to succeed in an endeavor where 90% of the sports bettors lose money.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
