Tomorrow is the Alabama special election. When the line came out at 2 to 1 in favor of strange I had mentioned I thought they had the wrong favorite and estimated the line to be closer to 4 to 1 in favor of Moore.
This morning just a day before the election Moore is now a 6 to 1 favorite. And that might be too low.
This is in spite of McConnell pouring millions into the race.
This race should set the tone for establishment republicans vs Trumpers (for lack of a better word)
My theory is that in 2018 it will be the Trumpers that gain rather than the Dems. The big losers will be the establishment Republicans. The mood is sour among the voters. Even more so when Trump got elected.
If Moore does trounce Strange then the numbers on all establishment Republicans who are being primaried are way too high.
Flake was a favorite when the line opened and he is now a 3 to 2 dog. But the primary my guess is he will be closer to a 4 to 1 or even 6 to 1 dog.
Heller the same.
If you’re looking for a long shot, take a look at Ryan. Ryan is a 5 1/2 to 1 favorite. Take the odds. By the primary, it will be no higher than 3 to 1. And if things really go wrong for Ryan closer to even money.
Do not underestimate the anti-establishment mood in the Country.
Another one to look at is whether the Dems will take control of the house. The odds right now slightly favor the Republicans.
In a normal off-year election the party not in control picks up at least 25 to 30 seats. However, my guess is this will be far from a normal election off year.
I view the odds more like 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. A nice overlay here.
One more that looks good to me is which party will win the White House in 2020. The odds are 55 to 45 in favor of the Democrats. I think they have the wrong favorite here. I put it at 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans at the very least.
Now a lot can happen between now and 2020. But right now It looks like they have the wrong favorite here.
These odds in no way reflect my personal opinions on any issues. I am fortunate enough not to be burdened with any dogmatic ideology. I am purely an issue-driven person. I find myself on occasion on either side depending on the issue.
Now the more interesting question is whether the establishment Republicans will take heed after Strange gets trounced. Most likely not is my guess. They will go down with the establishment ship.
By 2020 McConnell will not be leading the Senate and Ryan if he survives will not be leading the house.
Let’s see how close I come:)