I usually do not give a Monday update on political odds but there has been quite a shift on the Kavanaugh confirmation odds.
In my last two updates, I indicated that one of the best wagers around right now in the political arena was taking 10 to 1 that Kavanaugh would not be confirmed.
I think I said, you are hearing it from me first:)
Well, not to gloat but the odds are down to 3 to 2 and I expect them to go lower. Before this is over I expect Kavanaugh to be a dog on confirmation. And I expect that Kavanaugh will not be confirmed.
He will either withdraw or he will not get enough votes in the Senate.
If I had to put a price on it this morning, I would put the line out at 5 to 1 the confirmation goes down. And I think that may be a bit low.
Already Flake and Corker have expressed misgivings. My guess is neither, being never Trumpers, were looking for any excuse to vote against confirming Kavanaugh.
Add Collins and Murkowski to the mix and I do not see the votes being there. This gives them a reason to vote no. One they were looking for to begin with.
If you are still looking for a good wager take the 3 to 2. At this point, there is little chance he is going to be confirmed.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks