My last post I mentioned that the Governor’s race in Virginia was a bit high at 3 to 1 in favor of the Democrat. I put the line at closer to 8 to 5.
Now with just 2 days left before the election, the political odds are 6 to 4 in favor of the Democrat. My view now is that the gravy is gone in the wager getting 3 to 1.
I view the election as a tossup at best. Perhaps even the Republican a slight favorite. Last week went terribly for Northam. So the momentum is in favor of Gillespie right now.
This will be another precursor of what 2018 will bring. If Gillespie pulls out a win my theory that non-establishment Republicans will get the gains will become stronger.
Another line I mentioned was Clinton only being a 2 to 1 dog to face charges by June of 2018. That was a very low number considering that Clinton has been untouchable for years. The line has moved to 3.5 to 1 against.
I still do not have an opinion on this one. Look to see if the Podesta’s get indicted and if any Congressmen get indicted relating to receiving pay for play lobbying money. That will be the indicator to me what Clinton’s exposure to an indictment might be.
Heller is still 6 to 4 against to win the Nevada primary. Laying 6 to 4 looks like a gift to me. I say 5 to 1 minimum against.
Ryan is staying steady at 5.5 to 1 to win the Wisconsin primary. I still think that is a good wager taking the 5.5 to 1. Ryan is heading down the path of backing DACA and other immigration proposals. It’s just a matter of time before Bannon takes aim at him and starts promoting his opponent.
This is the best long shot on the card right now that I can see.
The white house in 2020 is staying steady at 55 45 in favor of the Dems. I put the line at 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. The Dems as I have seen it would need to really turn things around to have even the slightest chance. So far I do not see anything that would indicate a shift by the Dems.
As always I want to give the caveat that I have no personal ideology as to any of these odds. They are merely how I analyze the facts and extrapolate them using my mind(always risky)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks